Toluca vs. Guadalajara Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Guadalajara Liga MX match on July 18, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Toluca
2
0
Estadio Akron
Guadalajara
Estadio Akron
GuadalajaraGCH
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
A. Sepulveda (50')
Red Card icon
A. Vega (pen.) (42')
Soccer ball icon
J. Gallardo (74')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Guadalajara
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Carrillo (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
  2. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Bruno Mendez replaces N. Castro
  3. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Arce replaces J. Angulo
  4. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: R. Marin replaces D. Campillo Del Campo
  5. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: M. Gomez replaces D. Aguirre
  6. 74'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Gallardo, assisted by Helinho
    2-0
  7. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: V. Guzman replaces A. Vega
  8. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: J. Carrillo replaces O. Govea
  9. 61'
    Yellow Card
    J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
  10. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces E. Gutierrez
  11. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: A. Gonzalez replaces R. Ledezma
  12. 54'
    Yellow Card
    R. Alvarado (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
  13. 50'
    Red Card
    A. Sepulveda (Guadalajara Chivas) sent off with a straight red card
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: B. Gutierrez replaces K. Castaneda
  15. 42'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by A. Vega (pen.)
    1-0
  16. 19'
    Yellow Card
    F. Romero (Toluca) cautioned

Toluca vs. Guadalajara: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Guadalajara
  • Date: Saturday, July 18, 2026
  • Time: 9:07 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Akron

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +280, Guadalajara +100, draw +270
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-145/+115)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 34.4%
  • Guadalajara: 40.7%
  • Draw: 24.9%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Guadalajara (11.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Toluca vs. Guadalajara? Prediction & correct score

Guadalajara is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 40.7%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Guadalajara.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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