MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Chris Bassitt [5/28/2026]

Chris Bassitt over 1.5 earned runs (-175)

• Edge: 7.6%
• Probability: 71.2%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Baltimore's Chris Bassitt over 1.5 earned runs. A probability of 71.2% gives this play an edge of 7.6% at -175 odds.

Chris Bassitt over 3.5 strikeouts (-161)

• Edge: 8.5%
• Probability: 70.2%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Chris Bassitt’s strikeouts prop shows a 70.2% probability and an 8.5% edge at -161 odds, according to our model.

Nathan Eovaldi under 6.5 strikeouts (-158)

• Edge: 8.6%
• Probability: 69.9%
• Game: Astros vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

The data highlights value on Nathan Eovaldi under 6.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 69.9% probability and an 8.6% edge at -158.

Jack Flaherty under 6.5 strikeouts (-131)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 62.8%
• Game: Angels vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Jack Flaherty under 6.5 strikeouts, with a 62.8% probability and an edge of 6.1% at -131 odds.

Grayson Rodriguez under 5.5 hits allowed (-128)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 62.6%
• Game: Angels vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Grayson Rodriguez under 5.5 hits allowed for LA Angels, showing an edge of 6.5% at -128 odds.

Chris Sale over 1.5 earned runs (-129)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 61.8%
• Game: Braves vs. Red Sox (4:10PM ET)

Chris Sale’s earned runs prop shows an edge of 5.5% at -129 odds, supported by a 61.8% probability according to our model.

Chris Sale over 4.5 hits allowed (-141)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 61.0%
• Game: Braves vs. Red Sox (4:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Chris Sale over 4.5 hits allowed for Atlanta, with a 61.0% probability and a 2.5% edge at -141 odds.

Payton Tolle under 16.5 outs recorded (-125)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 60.7%
• Game: Braves vs. Red Sox (4:10PM ET)

The data shows value on Payton Tolle under 16.5 outs recorded, supported by a 60.7% probability at -125 odds and an edge of 5.1%.

Colin Rea over 5.5 hits allowed (-125)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 59.0%
• Game: Cubs vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET)

A 3.5% edge on the over 16.5 hits allowed line makes Colin Rea a value play in Cubs vs. Pirates, supported by a 59.0% probability at -125 odds.

Tyler O'Neill to get a hit (-120)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 59.0%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Simulations show value on Tyler O'Neill to get a hit here, with a 59.0% probability and 4.4% edge at -120 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Thursday, May 28, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 12:21PM ET:

Conclusion

For May 28, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Flaherty. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.