WNBA Props and Parlay Picks: One bet to make in each game on Thursday, July 9

Bet: Awa Fam 2+ threes (-106 on DraftKings)

Game: Storm vs. Dream

First up, we'll look at Storm rookie center Awa Fam, who's found a three-point shot in her game after going 0-9 from deep through her first 5 games.

Since she hit 2 threes for the first time on June 10, she's done so in 7 of 10 games, hitting 3, 4 and 5 each once in that span. The 5-spot came against this Atlanta Dream team, who allow the highest three-point percentage in the WNBA. Fam was one of four Storm starters to knock down a pair of threes in that game.

The Dimers model puts Fam at 3.2 threes tonight, highest on the night and some line reading highlights this spot as well. At -500 for 1+ three, an 83.3% implied probability, the books know Fam is sure to put up the shots, but she goes all the way down to -106, nearly a 50% probability just to hit one more. At more than 60% to do so from the Dimers model, that signals a major value.

For some upside, start at 2+ threes and take Fam's ladder as high as you like tonight, with our projections supporting 3+ (+300) at the very least; just remember to scale your stake so you'll come out ahead if she hits just 2.

Bet: Kelsey Mitchell 4+ threes (+162 on FanDuel)

Game: Fever vs. Mercury

We're going a little over our projection tonight, but Mitchell has cashed for us multiple times now.

Projected for 3.0 threes on the dot, Mitchell has hit 4+ threes in 3 of her past 4 games, her hottest stretch of the season, highlighted by a 7-9 performance from deep vs. this Mercury team two weeks ago.

That game was notorious for a scuffle and injury to Caitlin Clark that led to the one-game suspension of Alyssa Thomas. Clark left in the third and Mitchell put up a 30-spot behind her three-point shooting to carry the team.

Clark is out tonight and Aliyah Boston could be managed cautiously as she returns from a one-game injury absence.

Phoenix allows the second-highest three-point percentage this season, so let's ride Mitchell's hot hand one more time.

Bet: Chelsea Gray 8+ assists (+124 on FanDuel)

Game: Aces vs. Fire

This bet may hinge on the game-time status of A'ja Wilson, so keep that in mind, but we're taking a look at this spot for Chelsea Gray of the Aces.

Gray has the third most assists per game in the league, and before going under in the past three games without Wilson, hit this in six straight. She projects for 7.1 tonight by the Dimers model, but at a 48.1% probability to clear 7.5, is closer to a coin flip rather than the 44.6% chance in her +124 odds.

The matchup is about as good as it gets even without Wilson, as the Fire allow the most assists per game at 23.3 and have the second-worst assist/turnover ratio. Passing lanes should be wide open for Gray tonight, and an active Wilson only gives this prop a boost.

If A'ja Wilson does suit up in this game, the Dimers model loves the plus-money value on her points and rebounds lines, but the reigning MVP's status is up in the air as of publishing.

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