Jul 9, 2026
Aces vs. Fire prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/9/2026]
Read Article Fever vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Thursday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Fever vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, with star players like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Fever, who feature Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston and Tyasha Harris.
Fever superstar Cailtin Clark will miss the game though, with the USBWNT guard set to be on the sidelines for this one.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Fever vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA game between the Fever and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Mercury a 58.0% chance of defeating the Fever.
According to our model, the Mercury (-1.5) have a 52.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 170.5-point over/under has a 56.8% chance of staying under,.
Fever vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Fever | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (+104) |
| Moneyline | +104 | -114 |
| Total | o170.5 (-110) | u170.5 (+108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fever vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury -1.5 | novig+104 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | -114 |
| Total | Under 170.5 | novig+108 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 170.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Fever vs. Mercury player props
WNBA player props are a popular way to wager on the Indiana vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Kelsey Mitchell is expected to lead the Fever with 23 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 18 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists for the Mercury.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kahleah Copper striking first with a 15.8% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Fever prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Fever are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell | 23 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 35 |
| Aliyah Boston | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 38 |
| Tyasha Harris | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| S. Cunningham | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| M. Billings | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 28 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 17 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 48 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| Noemie Brochant | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
Fever vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Mercury and Fever at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 58.0% win probability, will likely beat the Fever in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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