Jul 9, 2026
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Read Article Aces vs. Fire prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Las Vegas Aces vs Portland Fire predictions for WNBA Thursday.
WNBA action continues on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET as the Las Vegas Aces square off with the Portland Fire at Moda Center.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Fire game.
The Fire, who have the likes of Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Sarah Barker, will face off against the Aces, featuring A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Aces vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA game between the Aces and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Aces a 74.8% chance of defeating the Fire.
According to our model, the Fire (+8.5) have a 55.8% chance of covering the spread, while the 174.5-point over/under has a 59.5% chance of staying under,.
Aces vs. Fire odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Aces | Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -8.5 (-110) | +8.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -375 | +310 |
| Total | o174.5 (-108) | u174.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aces vs. Fire picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fire +8.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Fire | +310 |
| Total | Under 174.5 | -108 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 174.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aces vs. Fire player props
Looking for Aces vs. Fire WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.
A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 28 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 16 points, 2 rebounds and 5 assists for the Fire.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight A'ja Wilson as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Aces prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 28 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 55 |
| Jackie Young | 17 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 37 |
| Chelsea Gray | 12 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 33 |
| Jewell Loyd | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
| NaLyssa Smith | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 |
Fire prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 30 |
| Megan Gustafson | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| Sarah Barker | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| B. Carleton | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Emily Engstler | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
Aces vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Fire and Aces at Moda Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Portland Fire
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Moda Center
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 74.8% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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