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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, July 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/9.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, July 9, 2026—are live with the Fever's Kelsey Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Mitchell, A'ja Wilson and Kahleah Copper lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 9, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 15.1% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.1% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 14.8% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 14.5% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 13.9% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 12.4% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 12.3% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.8% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 11.7% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 11.6% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.3% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 11.2% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 10.8% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 10.2% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 10.1% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 10.1% |
| Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) | 9.0% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 8.9% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 8.4% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 8.4% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.2% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 7.9% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 7.8% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 7.2% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 7.1% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.1% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.7% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 6.1% |
| Ezi Magbegor (Storm) | 5.3% |
| Tyasha Harris (Fever) | 4.9% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 4.6% | +1300 | 11.7% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker | Fire | 2.4% | +1200 | 10.1% |
| NaLyssa Smith | Aces | 1.5% | +970 | 10.8% |
| Valeriane Ayayi | Mercury | 1.3% | +1200 | 9.0% |
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 1.3% | +810 | 12.3% |
| Lexie Hull | Fever | 0.9% | +1500 | 7.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, July 9, 2026, Kelsey Mitchell, A'ja Wilson and Kahleah Copper lead our first basket projections, while Natisha Hiedeman shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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