Jul 9, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, July 9, 2026
Read Article Best WNBA bets today: Thursday's picks include Fever vs. Mercury play [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get WNBA picks today and best bets for Thursday, July 9, 2026.
Today’s best WNBA bets for July 9, 2026 are here, with Fever vs. Mercury and Storm vs. Dream among the top plays identified by our model across Thursday’s WNBA action.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, going over the latest WNBA odds to find top betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of WNBA best bets tonight [7/9, updated 2:54AM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s best WNBA bets, ranked by edge for Thursday, July 9, 2026.
Fever vs. Mercury Under 174.5 points (-110)
- Edge: 10.4%
- Probability: 62.8%
- Matchup: Fever vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET)
Our model has identified value on Under 174.5 points in Fever vs. Mercury at -110 odds. A 62.8% probability produces an edge of 10.4%, making this the strongest play for today's WNBA slate.
Storm vs. Dream Under 168.5 points (-105)
- Edge: 7.3%
- Probability: 58.5%
- Matchup: Storm vs. Dream (8:00PM ET)
Storm vs. Dream under 168.5 points carries a 7.3% edge and a probability of 58.5% at -105 odds, according to our model.
Storm +11.5 (-113)
- Edge: 7.2%
- Probability: 60.2%
- Matchup: Storm vs. Dream (8:00PM ET)
Storm +11.5 vs. Dream at -113 odds shows a 7.2% edge, supported by a 60.2% probability in simulations.
Aces vs. Fire under 175.5 points (-110)
- Edge: 6.9%
- Probability: 59.3%
- Matchup: Aces vs. Fire (10:00PM ET)
A 6.9% edge and 59.3% probability make Aces vs. Fire under 175.5 points a value play in the Aces vs. Fire matchup, per our model.
Fire +8.5 (-106)
- Edge: 4.6%
- Probability: 56.1%
- Matchup: Aces vs. Fire (10:00PM ET)
Fire +8.5 at -106 odds presents a 4.6% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 56.1%.
Mercury ML (-104)
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 55.4%
- Matchup: Fever vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET)
Our model finds value on Mercury to win at -104 odds, supported by an edge of 4.5%.
Storm ML (+470)
- Edge: 4.0%
- Probability: 21.6%
- Matchup: Storm vs. Dream (8:00PM ET)
Our model has uncovered value on Storm-Dream to finish as a tie after 90 minutes at +470 odds. A 21.6% probability produces a 4.0% edge, making this a strong play for today's WNBA action.
WNBA best bets summary: Thursday, 7/9/2026
As of 2:54AM ET, here are our top WNBA bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fever vs. Mercury | Under 174.5 points | -110 @ DraftKings | 10.4% | 62.8% |
| Storm vs. Dream | Under 168.5 points | -105 @ BetMGM | 7.3% | 58.5% |
| Storm vs. Dream | Storm +11.5 | -113 @ Novig | 7.2% | 60.2% |
| Aces vs. Fire | Under 175.5 points | -110 @ Fanatics | 6.9% | 59.3% |
| Aces vs. Fire | Fire +8.5 | -106 @ FanDuel | 4.6% | 56.1% |
| Fever vs. Mercury | Mercury ML | -104 @ Novig | 4.5% | 55.4% |
| Storm vs. Dream | Storm ML | +470 @ DraftKings | 4.0% | 21.6% |
List of upcoming WNBA games to bet on [7/9/2026]
- Storm vs. Dream (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
- Fever vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)
- Aces vs. Fire (10:00PM ET, Thursday)
Conclusion
Our WNBA best bets are locked and loaded for July 9, 2026, featuring plays such as under 174.5 points in the Fever vs. Mercury matchup and under 168.5 points in the Storm vs. Dream matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are based on current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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