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Read Article Yankees vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Sunday's Subway Series matchup [5/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Yankees vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Sunday.
The New York Mets will face the New York Yankees, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Citi Field on Sunday, commencing at 1:40 PM ET.
Freddy Peralta (3-3, 3.10 ERA) will start on the mound for the Mets, while the Yankees have opted for Elmer Rodríguez (0-1, 5.19 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Yankees.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Yankees vs. Mets matchup, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Mets prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Yankees and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mets a 53% chance of defeating the Yankees.
According to our model, the 8.5-run over/under has a 56% chance of going over.
Yankees vs. Mets odds [5/17/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +105 | -115 |
| Total | o8.5 (-120) | u8.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Yankees vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mets | -115 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -120 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Yankees vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Yankees at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
- Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Yankees in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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