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Read Article MLB picks today: Saturday's MLB best bets include Diamondbacks vs. Rockies play [5/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for May 16, 2026 are here, with Diamondbacks vs. Rockies and Rangers vs. Astros among the top plays identified by our model across Saturday’s MLB play.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, scanning the latest baseball odds to unearth genuine betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets today [5/16, updated 9:32PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 baseball bets, ranked by edge for Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies over 10.5 runs (-102)
- Edge: 5.8%
- Probability: 56.3%
- Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET, Sunday)
Our model has identified value on over 10.5 runs in Diamondbacks vs. Rockies at -102 odds. A 56.3% probability produces an edge of 5.8%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Rangers vs. Astros over 8.5 runs (+111)
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 52%
- Matchup: Rangers vs. Astros (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
Rangers vs. Astros over 8.5 runs carries a 4.5% edge and a probability of 52% at +111 odds, according to our model.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs (-108)
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 56.5%
- Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Tigers (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
Blue Jays vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs at -108 odds shows a 4.5% edge, supported by a 56.5% probability in simulations.
Reds vs. Guardians over 8.5 runs (+102)
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 53.6%
- Matchup: Reds vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
A 4.1% edge and 53.6% probability make Reds vs. Guardians over 8.5 runs at a value play in the Reds vs. Guardians matchup, per our model.
Cubs vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs (+100)
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 53.7%
- Matchup: Cubs vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
Cubs vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs at +100 odds presents a 3.7% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.7%.
Padres vs. Mariners over 7.5 runs (-102)
- Edge: 3.6%
- Probability: 54.1%
- Matchup: Padres vs. Mariners (7:20PM ET, Sunday)
Our model finds value on over 7.5 runs in Padres vs. Mariners at -102 odds, supported by an edge of 3.6%.
Marlins vs. Rays over 7.5 runs (+115)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 49.4%
- Matchup: Marlins vs. Rays (12:15PM ET, Sunday)
Our model has uncovered value on Marlins vs. Rays over 7.5 runs at +115 odds. A 49.4% probability produces a 2.9% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Dodgers vs. Angels over 9.5 runs (+113)
- Edge: 2.7%
- Probability: 49.7%
- Matchup: Dodgers vs. Angels (4:07PM ET, Sunday)
A 2.7% edge on a 49.7% probability makes over 9.5 runs at +113 odds a solid value play in today's Dodgers vs. Angels matchup.
Mets ML (+111)
- Edge: 2.7%
- Probability: 50.8%
- Matchup: Yankees vs. Mets (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
Our model projects value on Mets to win at +111 odds. A 50.8% probability produces a 2.7% edge, making Mets the favorable ML play in Saturday’s matchup.
Reds +1.5 (-133)
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 59.4%
- Matchup: Reds vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Reds +1.5 at -133 odds shows a 59.4% probability and a 2.4% edge.
MLB best bets summary: Saturday, 5/16/2026
As of 9:32PM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks vs. Rockies | Over 10.5 Runs | -102 @ polymarket | 5.8% | 56.3% |
| Rangers vs. Astros | Over 8.5 Runs | +111 @ polymarket | 4.5% | 52% |
| Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Over 7.5 Runs | -108 @ polymarket | 4.5% | 56.5% |
| Reds vs. Guardians | Over 8.5 Runs | +102 @ polymarket | 4.1% | 53.6% |
| Cubs vs. White Sox | Over 8.5 Runs | +100 @ polymarket | 3.7% | 53.7% |
| Padres vs. Mariners | Over 7.5 Runs | -102 @ polymarket | 3.6% | 54.1% |
| Marlins vs. Rays | Over 7.5 Runs | +115 @ polymarket | 2.9% | 49.4% |
| Dodgers vs. Angels | Over 9.5 Runs | +113 @ polymarket | 2.7% | 49.7% |
| Yankees vs. Mets | Mets ML | +111 @ polymarket | 2.7% | 50.8% |
| Reds vs. Guardians | Reds +1.5 | -133 @ kalshi | 2.4% | 59.4% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/16/2026]
- Dodgers vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Saturday)
- Giants vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET, Saturday)
- Marlins vs. Rays (12:15PM ET, Sunday)
- Phillies vs. Pirates (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
- Orioles vs. Nationals (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
- Reds vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
- Blue Jays vs. Tigers (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
- Yankees vs. Mets (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
- Cubs vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
- Rangers vs. Astros (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
- Royals vs. Cardinals (2:15PM ET, Sunday)
- D-Backs vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET, Sunday)
- Giants vs. Athletics (4:05PM ET, Sunday)
- Dodgers vs. Angels (4:07PM ET, Sunday)
- Padres vs. Mariners (7:20PM ET, Sunday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 16, 2026, featuring plays such as over 10.5 runs in the Diamondbacks vs. Rockies matchup and over 8.5 runs in the Rangers vs. Astros matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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