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Read Article MLB picks today: Saturday's MLB best bets include Diamondbacks vs. Rockies play [5/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for May 16, 2026 are here, with Diamondbacks vs. Rockies and Red Sox vs. Braves among the top plays identified by our model across Saturday’s MLB play.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, searching the latest baseball odds to unearth legitimate betting edges. The result? Data-backed plays that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets today [5/16, updated 2:02AM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 baseball bets, ranked by edge for Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies over 11.5 runs (+115)
- Edge: 7.2%
- Probability: 53.7%
- Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET, Saturday)
Our model has identified value on over 11.5 runs in Diamondbacks vs. Rockies at +115 odds. A 53.7% probability produces an edge of 7.2%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Red Sox vs. Braves over 7.5 runs (-113)
- Edge: 6.5%
- Probability: 59.5%
- Matchup: Red Sox vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
Red Sox vs. Braves over 7.5 runs carries a 6.5% edge and a probability of 59.5% at -113 odds, according to our model.
Padres vs. Mariners over 7.5 runs (+125)
- Edge: 6.0%
- Probability: 50.5%
- Matchup: Padres vs. Mariners (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
Padres vs. Mariners over 7.5 runs at +125 odds shows a 6.0% edge, supported by a 50.5% probability in simulations.
Brewers vs. Twins over 8.5 runs (+108)
- Edge: 5.3%
- Probability: 53.3%
- Matchup: Brewers vs. Twins (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
A 5.3% edge and 53.3% probability make Brewers vs. Twins over 8.5 runs at a value play in the Brewers vs. Twins matchup, per our model.
Dodgers vs. Angels over 8.5 runs (-104)
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 55.9%
- Matchup: Dodgers vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Saturday)
Dodgers vs. Angels over 8.5 runs at -104 odds presents a 4.9% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 55.9%.
Rangers vs. Astros over 7.5 runs (-111)
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 57.4%
- Matchup: Rangers vs. Astros (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
Our model finds value on over 7.5 runs in Rangers vs. Astros at -111 odds, supported by an edge of 4.9%.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers over 8.5 runs (+113)
- Edge: 4.7%
- Probability: 51.7%
- Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET, Saturday)
Our model has uncovered value on Blue Jays vs. Tigers over 8.5 runs at +113 odds. A 51.7% probability produces a 4.7% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Reds vs. Guardians over 8.5 runs (+106)
- Edge: 4.3%
- Probability: 52.8%
- Matchup: Reds vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Saturday)
A 4.3% edge on a 52.8% probability makes over 8.5 runs at +106 odds a solid value play in today's Reds vs. Guardians matchup.
Phillies vs. Pirates over 8.5 runs (+120)
- Edge: 3.9%
- Probability: 49.4%
- Matchup: Phillies vs. Pirates (4:05PM ET, Saturday)
Our model projects value on over 8.5 runs at +120 odds. A 49.4% probability produces a 3.9% edge, making the over the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.
Cubs vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs (-106)
- Edge: 3.6%
- Probability: 55.1%
- Matchup: Cubs vs. White Sox (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Cubs vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs at -106 odds shows a 55.1% probability and a 3.6% edge.
MLB best bets summary: Saturday, 5/16/2026
As of 2:02AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks vs. Rockies | Over 11.5 Runs | +115 @ polymarket | 7.2% | 53.7% |
| Red Sox vs. Braves | Over 7.5 Runs | -113 @ polymarket | 6.5% | 59.5% |
| Padres vs. Mariners | Over 7.5 Runs | +125 @ polymarket | 6.0% | 50.5% |
| Brewers vs. Twins | Over 8.5 Runs | +108 @ polymarket | 5.3% | 53.3% |
| Dodgers vs. Angels | Over 8.5 Runs | -104 @ kalshi | 4.9% | 55.9% |
| Rangers vs. Astros | Over 7.5 Runs | -111 @ polymarket | 4.9% | 57.4% |
| Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Over 8.5 Runs | +113 @ polymarket | 4.7% | 51.7% |
| Reds vs. Guardians | Over 8.5 Runs | +106 @ polymarket | 4.3% | 52.8% |
| Phillies vs. Pirates | Over 8.5 Runs | +120 @ polymarket | 3.9% | 49.4% |
| Cubs vs. White Sox | Over 8.5 Runs | -106 @ polymarket | 3.6% | 55.1% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/16/2026]
- Blue Jays vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Royals vs. Cardinals (2:15PM ET, Saturday)
- D-Backs vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Phillies vs. Pirates (4:05PM ET, Saturday)
- Orioles vs. Nationals (4:05PM ET, Saturday)
- Marlins vs. Rays (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Reds vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Cubs vs. White Sox (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Rangers vs. Astros (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Brewers vs. Twins (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Red Sox vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
- Padres vs. Mariners (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
- Yankees vs. Mets (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
- Dodgers vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Saturday)
- Giants vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET, Saturday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 16, 2026, featuring plays such as over 11.5 runs in the Diamondbacks vs. Rockies matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Red Sox vs. Braves matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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