Jul 9, 2026
MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Angels vs. Rangers play [7/9/2026]
Read Article MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Gavin Williams [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 9, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Gavin Williams, Bailey Ober and Mitch Keller.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Cubs vs. Orioles and Phillies vs. Reds, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop bets for Thursday, 7/9
Sourced from 60+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 9, ranked by probability.
Gavin Williams under 6.5 strikeouts (-153)
- Edge: 9.9%
- Probability: 70.3%
- Game: Guardians vs. Twins (1:40PM ET)
Our model has found value on Cleveland's Gavin Williams under 6.5 strikeouts. A probability of 70.3% gives this play an edge of 9.9% at -153 odds.
Bailey Ober over 3.5 strikeouts (-150)
- Edge: 9.2%
- Probability: 69.2%
- Game: Guardians vs. Twins (1:40PM ET)
Bailey Ober’s strikeouts prop shows a 69.2% probability and an 9.2% edge at -150 odds, according to our model.
Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts (-150)
- Edge: 5.8%
- Probability: 65.8%
- Game: Braves vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET)
The data highlights value on Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 65.8% probability and a 5.8% edge at -150.
Janson Junk over 3.5 strikeouts (-123)
- Edge: 6.4%
- Probability: 61.5%
- Game: Mariners vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET)
Our model finds value on Janson Junk over 3.5 strikeouts, with a 61.5% probability and an edge of 6.4% at -123 odds.
Logan Henderson under 4.5 strikeouts (-106)
- Edge: 9.4%
- Probability: 60.8%
- Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Logan Henderson under 4.5 strikeouts for Milwaukee, showing an edge of 9.4% at -106 odds.
Gavin Williams under 17.5 outs recorded (-124)
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 59.8%
- Game: Guardians vs. Twins (1:40PM ET)
Gavin Williams’s outs recorded prop shows an edge of 4.5% at -124 odds, supported by a 59.8% probability according to our model.
Bryan Torres to get a hit (-115)
- Edge: 5.4%
- Probability: 58.9%
- Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Bryan Torres to get a hit for St. Louis, with a 58.9% probability and a 5.4% edge at -115 odds.
Kevin Alcántara to get a hit (-102)
- Edge: 8.0%
- Probability: 58.5%
- Game: Cubs vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET)
The data shows value on Kevin Alcántara to get a hit, supported by a 58.5% probability at -102 odds and an edge of 8.0%.
Brady Singer under 16.5 outs recorded (-110)
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 58.1%
- Game: Phillies vs. Reds (7:10PM ET)
A 5.7% edge on the under 0.5 outs recorded line makes Brady Singer a value play in Phillies vs. Reds, supported by a 58.1% probability at -110 odds.
Michael Wacha under 4.5 strikeouts (+108)
- Edge: 8.8%
- Probability: 56.9%
- Game: Royals vs. Mets (1:10PM ET)
Simulations show value on Michael Wacha under 4.5 strikeouts here, with a 56.9% probability and 8.8% edge at +108 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Thursday, July 9, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 2:27AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians vs. Twins | Gavin Williams under 6.5 strikeouts | -153 @ DraftKings | 9.9% | 70.3% |
| Guardians vs. Twins | Bailey Ober over 3.5 strikeouts | -150 @ Fanatics | 9.2% | 69.2% |
| Braves vs. Pirates | Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts | -150 @ Fanatics | 6.4% | 61.5% |
| Mariners vs. Marlins | Janson Junk over 3.5 strikeouts | -123 @ DraftKings | 6.4% | 61.5% |
| Brewers vs. Cardinals | Logan Henderson under 4.5 strikeouts | -106 @ DraftKings | 9.4% | 60.8% |
| Guardians vs. Twins | Gavin Williams under 17.5 outs recorded | -124 @ DraftKings | 4.5% | 59.8% |
| Brewers vs. Cardinals | Bryan Torres to get a hit | -115 @ DraftKings | 5.4% | 58.9% |
| Cubs vs. Orioles | Kevin Alcántara to get a hit | -102 @ DraftKings | 8.0% | 58.5% |
| Phillies vs. Reds | Brady Singer under 16.5 outs recorded | -110 @ DraftKings | 5.7% | 58.1% |
| Royals vs. Mets | Michael Wacha under 4.5 strikeouts | +108 @ FanDuel | 8.8% | 56.9% |
Conclusion
For July 9, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Gavin Williams, Bailey Ober and Mitch Keller. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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