D-Backs vs. Padres Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the D-Backs vs. Padres MLB game on July 9, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
D-Backs
Merrill Kelly 6-8, 5.71 ERA
3
1
Petco Park
Padres
Griffin Canning 1-6, 6.71 ERA
Petco Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
D-Backs
0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 8 0
Padres
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • D-Backs
    100%
  • Padres
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Xander Bogaerts strikes out on a foul tip.
Quick Box Score
D-Backs Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 K. Marte 2B4000001.0000.000
2 G. Perdomo SS4021000.5001.000
3 C. Carroll RF3010012.3330.833
4 G. Moreno C4010001.2500.500
5 M. Kepler DH4110002.2500.500
6 J. Barrosa CF0000000.0000.000
7 N. Arenado 3B4111103.2501.250
8 T. Troy LF3110011.3330.833
9 I. Vargas 1B1000000.0000.000
Padres Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 F. Tatis RF4010002.2500.500
2 J. Merrill CF4000001.0000.000
3 X. Bogaerts SS4000003.0000.000
4 M. Machado 3B3121100.6672.334
5 G. Sheets LF2000010.0000.333
6 J. Cronenworth 1B3000000.0000.000
7 L. Campusano C1000020.0000.667
8 M. Andujar DH3000001.0000.000
9 S. Song 2B3000002.0000.000

D-Backs vs. Padres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: D-Backs vs. Padres
  • Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
  • Time: 9:40 PM ET
  • Venue: Petco Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Padres favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 9
  • Moneyline Odds: D-Backs 46¢, Padres 54¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • D-Backs: 48%
  • Padres: 52%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the D-Backs a win probability of 48%, while the Padres have a win probability of 52%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Padres are more likely to beat the D-Backs in the MLB game at Petco Park on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our D-Backs vs. Padres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.