Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Phillies vs. Pirates MLB game on May 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Phillies
Zack Wheeler 2-0, 2.55 ERA
6
0
May 17, 1:35 PM ET PNC Park
Pirates
Paul Skenes 6-2, 1.98 ERA
May 17, 1:35 PM ET PNC Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Phillies
0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 6 8 0
Pirates
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Phillies
    100%
  • Pirates
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Spencer Horwitz pops out to shallow left field to Alec Bohm.
Quick Box Score
Phillies Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 T. Turner SS5011001.2000.400
2 K. Schwarber DH5000004.0000.000
3 B. Harper 1B4111102.2501.250
4 A. Bohm 3B4120001.5001.250
5 B. Marsh LF4110002.2500.750
6 A. García RF1100011.0000.750
7 B. Stott 2B4123101.5002.000
8 J. Realmuto C4110001.2500.500
9 J. Crawford CF4001000.0000.000
Pirates Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 O. Cruz DH4010002.2500.500
2 B. Lowe 2B4010001.2500.750
3 B. Reynolds LF4000000.0000.000
4 N. Gonzales 3B4010000.2500.500
5 S. Horwitz 1B4010002.2500.500
6 K. Griffin SS3010000.3330.666
7 J. Mangum CF2000011.0000.333
8 J. Triolo RF3000002.0000.000
9 H. Davis C3000001.0000.000

Phillies vs. Pirates: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Phillies vs. Pirates
  • Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
  • Time: 1:35 PM ET
  • Venue: PNC Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Phillies favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Phillies +120, Pirates -117

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Phillies: 47%
  • Pirates: 53%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Phillies a win probability of 47%, while the Pirates have a win probability of 53%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Pirates are more likely to beat the Phillies in the MLB game at PNC Park on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Phillies vs. Pirates predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.