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Padres vs. Mariners Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Padres vs. Mariners MLB game on May 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
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MLB
8
3
May 17, 11:20PM T-Mobile Park
May 17, 11:20PM T-Mobile Park
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Bets
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Padres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 2 |
Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Run Line
Win %
100%
0%
Win Probability
Last At Bat
Outs
Mitch Garver strikes out swinging.
Quick Box Score
Hitting
Pitching
| No. | Player | Pos | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Tatis | 2B | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .200 | 0.400 |
| 2 | S. Song | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0.000 |
| 3 | G. Sheets | LF | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 4.333 |
| 4 | M. Machado | DH | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .200 | 0.600 |
| 5 | X. Bogaerts | SS | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .000 | 0.250 |
| 6 | J. Merrill | CF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | 0.750 |
| 7 | R. Laureano | RF | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .000 | 0.250 |
| 8 | T. France | 1B | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .750 | 1.500 |
| 9 | F. Fermin | C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 0.000 |
| No. | Player | Pos | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Rivas | SS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 0.500 |
| 2 | J. Rodríguez | CF | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 0.250 |
| 3 | J. Naylor | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 0.250 |
| 4 | R. Arozarena | LF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0.000 |
| 5 | R. Refsnyder | RF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0.000 |
| 6 | C. Young | 2B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 0.000 |
| 7 | D. Canzone | DH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .000 | 0.250 |
| 8 | M. Garver | C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 0.000 |
| 9 | C. Emerson | 3B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 0.333 |
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Padres vs. Mariners: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Padres vs. Mariners
- Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
- Time: 7:20 PM ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Park
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Mariners favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 7.5
- Moneyline Odds: Padres +141, Mariners -140
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Padres: 40%
- Mariners: 60%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Padres a win probability of 40%, while the Mariners have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Mariners are more likely to beat the Padres in the MLB game at T-Mobile Park on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Padres vs. Mariners predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.
