As the nation observes Presidents' Day, the eyes of the financial world aren't just on the holiday sales or the history books. In the world of
federally regulated prediction markets, a different kind of executive drama is unfolding: Who will shape the economic future of the administration, and who might be on their way out?
On
, the leading US-based prediction exchange, the
has become a financial juggernaut, as has the "Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?" market. With a staggering
$170 million+ in total trading volume, the price movement of these contracts offers a real-time look at how much the "smart money" is willing to stake on the next leader of the Federal Reserve.
The Warsh Consensus: Tracking the Fed Chair Odds
The road to today's consensus has been a high-stakes battle.
show that while names like Judy Shelton have lingered in the conversation, the market has aggressively consolidated around
Kevin Warsh. Early volatility has given way to supreme confidence from traders.
The permanent shift appears to have solidified over the holiday weekend.
now prices a Kevin Warsh nomination at a dominating
95%, leaving other contenders like Shelton (5%) as distant longshots in the eyes of investors.
Here's the price movement for the USA buying Greenland since the market opened on Kalshi.
Current Kalshi Prices for Trump Markets (Updated 3:20 Pm ET, 2/16/26)
As of Monday afternoon, the Kalshi order books show high conviction on the Fed Chair, but significant volatility in the "Cabinet Shakeup" and "Greenland" markets.
| Market Contract |
Price (Kalshi) |
Implied Probability |
| Kevin Warsh (Fed Chair) |
95¢ |
95% |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Leave Admin) |
53¢ |
53% |
| Pam Bondi (Leave Cabinet) |
23¢ |
23% |
| Buy Greenland (Before 2029) |
30¢ |
30% |
| Aliens Confirmed (Before 2027) |
17¢ |
17% |
Data sourced from Kalshi Prediction Exchange as of 3:20 PM ET, Feb 16, 2026. Prices represent the market's estimated probability of each outcome.
Note:
On Kalshi, contracts trade between $0 and $1. A price of 95¢ means the market believes there is a 95% chance the event happens. If correct, the contract pays out $1.00.
Cabinet Shakeup Rumors: Why Pam Bondi Is Spiking on Kalshi
Traders are paying close attention to the
"Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?"
market. With over
$1.2 million
in volume, a clear frontrunner is emerging.
Pam Bondi
is currently leading the pack at
23%, edging out Kristi Noem (18%). In prediction markets, this fragmentation often indicates conflicting insider reports regarding the next administration departure.
Additionally, the
"Greenland Acquisition"
market continues to see surprising volume ($5.8M), with traders giving a
30%
chance that the U.S. buys at least part of the territory before the end of the term.
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Will Warsh Lock Down the Fed?
The $167 million wagered on the Fed Chair market suggests that this isn't just speculation—it’s a reflection of concentrated institutional confidence. When a contract holds above the 90% threshold, it signals a level of certainty usually reserved for events that have practically already happened.
Whether it's the Fed Chair appointment or the next Cabinet departure, millions of dollars are riding on the President's next move this week.
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