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Supercomputer reveals: Who will win the World Cup in 2026?
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Damien Souness
Based on the latest World Cup predictions, one nation has emerged as the team to beat when 48 countries battle it out in 2026.
The latest World Cup futures from Dimers' data analytics model have identified the team to beat when 48 countries compete for the 2026 title in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Following the 2026 World Cup draw on December 5, Dimers has run more than 10,000 tournament simulations to identify who will win the World Cup.
Who will win the World Cup?
Dimers' model gives Spain a commanding 16.8% chance of lifting the World Cup trophy—the strongest winner projection among all 48 competing nations.
Bookmakers are also aligned with this data, pricing Spain as the World Cup favorite with the best odds of +450 at leading American bookmaker DraftKings Sportsbook.
This reflects Spain's seemingly favorable path through the tournament from Group H and the continued development of their young and talented core—led by Barcelona phenomenon Lamine Yamal—positioning them ahead of their continental rivals.
Behind Spain, the battle for supremacy looks incredibly tight, presenting an intriguing scenario for soccer fans looking to lock in their World Cup best bets ahead of time while there's still some early value on the board.
After losing to Lionel Messi's Argentina in the 2022 final, France sits second with a 14.9% chance of being crowned 2026 World Cup champion, edging out England, who have a 14.5% probability.
However, the major soccer betting sites present a slightly different picture, with England's World Cup odds (+650) shorter than France's (+750).
This discrepancy suggests that while the raw data favors Les Bleus, the betting public is perhaps more confident in the Three Lions, making France a potentially higher-value selection for those who trust math over market sentiment.
Perhaps the most surprising takeaway from the post-draw analysis is the statistical drop-off for a couple of South American giants.
Dimers' current probabilities give defending champion Argentina an 11.2% chance to repeat, while Brazil's win probability is 7.3%.
With both nations sitting at +800 odds, the data suggests that early 2026 World Cup predictions are heavily skewed toward Europe, leaving the CONMEBOL powerhouses with significant work to do if they're to defy early projections.
How far will the USA get?
The data says USMNT can make a run—but how deep can they go? Statistical projections for the 2026 FIFA World Cup position the United States as a near-lock to survive the group stage (87.1%), though topping Group D remains a competitive toss-up (45.6%). The path becomes steeper immediately in the knockout stage, with reaching the Round of 16 another toss-up (51.2%). While a quarterfinal run presents close to a realistic one-in-four chance (24.7%), legitimate title hopes are statistically faint, with just a 1.3% chance of the USA lifting the trophy on home soil.
World Cup 2026 power rankings:
Win probabilities for the top five nations competing at the FIFA World Cup in 2026.
- Spain (16.8%)
- France (14.9%)
- England (14.5%)
- Argentina (11.2%)
- Brazil (7.3%)
Best FIFA World Cup 2026 dark horses:
Morocco (1.1%, 80-1)
Morocco represents dark horse value at 80-1 World Cup odds because they combine the proven pedigree of a World Cup semifinalist with a flawless, dominant qualification campaign for 2026.
The Atlas Lions have proven they are no longer just happy to participate; their historic fourth-place finish in Qatar 2022—where they stunned heavyweights like Belgium, Spain, and Portugal—demonstrated an elite defensive structure and tactical discipline that translates perfectly to tournament football.
Since that breakthrough, they have only improved, cruising through CAF qualifiers with a perfect record and integrating world-class talent like Real Madrid's Brahim Díaz alongside established stars Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui.
Getting a team ranked 11th in the world that boasts both a recent semifinal appearance and a squad full of Champions League experience at such long odds makes them the definition of a dangerous, high-upside dark horse.
Japan (0.8%, 100-1)
Japan at 100-1 odds is another World Cup dark horse play, with the Samurai Blue quietly graduating from underdog status to a legitimate threat capable of beating anyone on their day.
Like Morocco, their performance in Qatar 2022 was not a fluke; they topped a "group of death" by tactically dismantling both Germany and Spain, proving they can beat elite European sides on the biggest stage.
Since that tournament, they have only sharpened their edge, thrashing Germany again 4-1 in a 2023 friendly and ruthlessly dominating their 2026 Asian qualifiers with a high-scoring, watertight record.
With a squad now anchored by established Premier League and La Liga stars like Kaoru Mitoma, Wataru Endo, and Takefusa Kubo, Japan boasts the technical quality and depth to punish complacent giants, making them arguably the most dangerous team on the board at such a long price.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Damien Souness through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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