...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Can the USA win the men's soccer World Cup in 2026?
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Damien Souness
As the countdown begins for the 2026 World Cup, expectations for the USMNT are reaching a fever pitch—but how far can they go?
As the countdown begins for the 2026 World Cup on home soil, expectations for the USMNT are reaching a fever pitch. Fans and analysts alike are scrambling to find accurate World Cup predictions to gauge if the Stars and Stripes can truly capitalize on home-field advantage and win the World Cup in 2026.
With the tournament expansion to 48 teams changing the landscape, the latest statistical projections offer a realistic look at the United States' potential path to glory. From progressing out of Group D to navigating a treacherous knockout stage, the data reveals exactly where the United States Men's National Team stands among the global elite.
Mapping the USMNT's 2026 World Cup path
Dimers' data-driven projections for the USMNT in the expanded 2026 World Cup tournament suggest a strong start on home soil. The team is favored to survive the initial phase, with an 87.1% chance of getting out of Group D. This indicates that failure to advance to the Round of 32 would be a statistical anomaly and a significant disappointment.
However, securing the easiest path forward is far from guaranteed; the probability of actually winning Group D stands at 45.6%. This implies a competitive group dynamic where the US is a contender for the top spot, although one of Paraguay, Australia, and the winner of Europe's Playoff C (featuring Romania, Slovakia, Kosovo, or Turkey) will challenge them for the superior seed.
The knockout stage
Once the tournament enters the single-elimination rounds, the statistical path narrows considerably. While the US is expected to advance from the group, winning their first knockout match in the Round of 32 sits at a 51.2% probability.
This is the critical threshold for the team because progressing past the Round of 16 sees the probability of reaching the quarterfinals drop to 24.7%. Essentially, the data suggests that while a deep run is possible, the expectation for the USMNT settles around a Round of 16 appearance, with a one-in-four shot at matching their historic 2002 quarterfinal run.
Can the USA win the World Cup in 2026?
The USMNT's chances of achieving total glory are still quite low. Reaching the semifinals is calculated at 9.1%, indicating that a run to the final four would be a massive overperformance relative to Dimers' current data projections.
The numbers become even starker for the ultimate prize: a 3.7% chance to reach the final and a slim 1.3% probability of lifting the World Cup trophy.
While these numbers are low, they are non-zero, offering a mathematical sliver of hope that home-field advantage could fuel a historic upset. Wondering who will win the World Cup next summer? Take a look at who will win the World Cup, power rankings and dark horses, as well as the results of more than 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament in our World Cup futures section.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Damien Souness through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure