2026 FIFA World Cup draw: USMNT handed familiar foes in Group D

The balls have been drawn, the groups are set, and for the United States Men's National Team (USMNT), the path to 2026 World Cup glory on home soil looks suspiciously like their recent calendar.

Following the conclusion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup draw in Washington, DC, the USMNT finds itself headlining Group D against Australia and Paraguay—two teams it faced in friendlies this year—plus the winner of the European Playoff C (featuring Romania, Slovakia, Kosovo, or Turkey).

As a host nation, USMNT fans across the country knew they'd avoid heavyweights such as France, Spain, and Argentina, but head coach Mauricio Pochettino will also know that a "manageable" group on paper does not always translate to points on the field.

Here is a data-driven breakdown of the draw, which instantly changes the landscape for World Cup predictions and early World Cup best bets, for the United States and their co-hosts, Mexico and Canada.

Who does the USMNT play at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

USA men's soccer will play Paraguay on June 12, Australia on June 19, and one of Romania, Slovakia, Kosovo, or Turkey on June 25 in Group D of the 2026 World Cup.

According to Dimers' World Cup futures model, which ranks every team's chances in the tournament, Pochettino's USMNT has a 45.6% chance to top Group D, as they look to go on and win the World Cup on home soil in 2026. However, it's important to note that this represents the second lowest group-winning probability among all 12 groups.

USA vs. Paraguay

A potential "banana skin" for the USA, Paraguay is allocated the second-highest probability of winning Group D (18.7%). The U.S. scraped a 2-1 win against a 10-man La Albirroja in November, a match marred by a late brawl and intense physicality. Paraguay will bring that same South American cynicism and defensive rigidity to the soccer World Cup stage. They are masters of disrupting rhythm—something this young U.S. team sometimes struggles to regain.

USA vs. Australia

The Socceroos (a 15.8% chance to top Group D) are a team defined by grit and organization. The USMNT will take confidence from their 2-1 victory over Australia in October 2025, but World Cup soccer pressure changes the equation. Australia's physical midfield and aerial threat on set pieces will test a U.S. backline that has often looked vulnerable in the air.

USA vs. European Playoff C winner

While the final spot remains undecided, it's likely the Playoff C winner will be either Turkey (13.5% chance to win Group D) or Slovakia (4.3%).

While Dimers' advanced predictive modeling indicates the United States is more likely to top the group, it is definitely not one they can sleepwalk through. There are likely no "minnows" in Group D, and Pochettino's men must turn up if they're to progress to the knockout stage.

Can the USMNT win the 2026 World Cup?

The data says the USA can make a run—but how deep can they go? Dimers' World Cup probabilities reveal that the USA has a 1.3% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup.

Dimers' World Cup futures are powered by a large-scale simulation model built to assess every nation's path through the tournament and reveal who will win the FIFA World Cup in 2026.

Mexico drawn in Group A alongside South Korea and South Africa

Teams in Group A: Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, and the winner of Playoff D (Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia, or the Republic of Ireland).

For El Tri, the draw brought an audible gasp in the room when South Korea was pulled from Pot 2.

Mexico fans have not forgotten the stress of previous encounters with the Asian tigers, specifically the 2018 World Cup group stage, where Korea's pace caused them immense problems.

South Africa brings speed and unpredictability, while European Playoff D (Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia, or the Republic of Ireland) adds a distinct tactical hurdle.

The challenge: Mexico often struggles against teams that counterattack with pace—precisely the strength of both South Korea and South Africa.

The outlook: With the Azteca behind them, Mexico is the favorite to win Group A (50.4% probability), ahead of South Korea (19.7%), but this is a high-octane group where one slip-up could be fatal.

Canada in World Cup Group B alongside Switzerland and Qatar

Teams in Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, and the winner of Playoff A (Wales, Italy, Northern Ireland, or Bosnia and Herzegovina).

Canada has arguably the most polarized group of the three hosts—with Switzerland (34.4%) rated as the most likely winner of Group B, ahead of Canada (31.3%).

The heavyweight: Switzerland is the clear class of the group. Perennial knockout stage qualifiers, the Swiss are disciplined, efficient, and notoriously difficult to break down. This will be the litmus test for Canada's "Golden Generation."

The host-vs.-host narrative: Qatar (2022 hosts) facing Canada (2026 hosts) is a fascinating narrative. Canada defeated Qatar comfortably 2-0 in a 2022 friendly, and they will view this as a "must-win" three points.

The playoff: The winner of Playoff A will be one of Wales, Italy, Northern Ireland or Bosnia and Herzegovina, making the battle for progression incredibly tight.

The outlook: Canada has the firepower to get out of this group, but they cannot afford to drop points against Qatar. The match against Switzerland will likely decide their fate.