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Toluca vs. Cruz Azul prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [2/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Toluca vs Cruz Azul predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Toluca will square off with Cruz Azul in the Liga MX playoffs on Saturday, commencing at 6:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Cruz Azul game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Toluca vs. Cruz Azul prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Cruz Azul 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model indicates a 51.0% chance of Toluca winning, a 25.6% chance for Cruz Azul, and a 23.4% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 57% chance of going over, according to our model.
Toluca vs. Cruz Azul odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Toluca | Cruz Azul | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -125 | +330 | +280 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -144 | +118 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toluca vs. Cruz Azul picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruz Azul | +330 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +118 |
According to our best Liga MX bets, the top play to make on this game is Cruz Azul to win.
Toluca vs. Cruz Azul: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TOL 1-1 CAZ | 10.9% |
| TOL 2-1 CAZ | 9.7% |
| TOL 1-0 CAZ | 9.2% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 57.5% chance of the yes hitting, and a 42.5% probability of at least one team being held goalless.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Toluca vs. Cruz Azul game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between Toluca and Cruz Azul is scheduled to begin at 6:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toluca vs. Cruz Azul
- Date: Saturday, February 7, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toluca has a 51.0% win probability on Saturday, Cruz Azul has a 25.6% win probability, and there is a 23.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Toluca vs. Cruz Azul insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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