May 22, 2026
Guardians vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/22/2026]
Read Article Phillies vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [5/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will face the Philadelphia Phillies, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at PNC Park on Sunday, commencing at 1:35 PM ET.
Paul Skenes (6-2, 1.98 ERA) will be on the bump for the Pirates, up against Zack Wheeler (2-0, 2.55 ERA) for the Phillies.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Phillies vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 53% chance of defeating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 55% chance of covering the run line, while the 7-run over/under has a 56% chance of going over.
Phillies vs. Pirates odds [5/17/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+171) | +1.5 (-210) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total | o7 (-122) | u7 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Phillies -1.5 | +171 |
| Moneyline | Phillies | +110 |
| Total | Over 7 | -122 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Phillies -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Phillies at PNC Park is scheduled to start at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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