May 22, 2026
Pirates vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/22/2026]
Read Article Astros vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Friday.
MLB action continues on Friday at 2:20 PM ET as the Houston Astros lock horns with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.97 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Cubs, pitting him against Spencer Arrighetti (5-1, 1.50 ERA) for the Astros.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Astros vs. Cubs game.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Astros and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 56% chance of defeating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the run line, while the 7-run over/under has a 55% chance of going over.
Astros vs. Cubs odds [5/22/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-188) | -1.5 (+158) |
| Moneyline | +123 | -142 |
| Total | o7 (+103) | u7 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs -1.5 | +158 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +123 |
| Total | Over 7 | +103 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Astros at Wrigley Field is scheduled to commence at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Friday, May 22, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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