MLB Home Run Round Robin Parlay - Friday, May 3

MLB Home Run Round Robin Parlay - Friday, May 3

It's time to chase those home runs on Friday, May 3! As you're likely aware, we love our home run props at Dimers. From single edge plays to round robins and "Dinger Tuesday", we're always on the hunt for the next guy (or guys) to go yard on any given MLB night.

If you follow us on Twitter/X, then you know we drop Home Run Round Robins every day that we have the data available to do so. You can read our detailed guide into Round Robin strategy here, and it's not just exclusive to baseball, either!

You can find upwards of 50+ home run props on full game days within Dimers Pro. While we lean on our Dimers Prodata to identify our favorite round robin targets, we use a multitude of resources to narrow down our "final five" from the DimersBOT selections.

In an effort to continue building up our content offerings, as well as give you further insight into our Round Robin process, we're going to roll out this daily article as a companion piece to the final round Robin parlay we go with.

MORE: How to Build Home Run Parlays with Dimers Pro

Depending on when you check this article throughout the day, you'll find updates including our earliest HR Prop edges available, our short list of potential candidates before we narrow them down, and finally, our five picks with a little insight into why we chose them.

Let's get right into it!

Best Home Run Prop Bets - Friday, May 3

Below, you'll find the Top 5 Home Run Prop edges available to Dimers Pro as of 10:00 AM ET this morning. More often than not, at least one or two of these players will find their way into our final round robin play.

Our model is loving the value on the Cardinals and Guardians:

RELATED: Detailed Home Run Round Robin Strategy


Today's Home Run Targets

On first glance, these are the players we'll be researching today, Friday, May 3. Some may get added into this list, while others are taken off as we dig deeper into our data. This list will populate throughout the day, so check back later if it's blank!


Potential Home Run Picks - May 3, 2024
Tyler Nevin (OAK)
Nolan Gorman (STL)
Josh Naylor (CLE)
Freddie Freeman (LAD)
Juan Soto (NYY)
Justin Turner (TOR)
Shea Langeliers (OAK)
Elly De La Cruz (CIN)
Christian Walker (ARI)


Best Home Run Matchups - May 3

Here's a quick look at what stands out from our additional research - vulnerable pitchers, hot hitters, good weather, etc.

  • Favorable weather: Braves vs. Dodgers
  • Bullpens allowing the most HR: Rays (21), Blue Jays (20), Angels (18)
  • Pitcher targets: Aaron Nola (7 HR), Chris Paddack (5 HR), JP Sears (5 HR) Patrick Corbin (4 HR)
  • Sneaky Hot Hitters: W. Adames, R. Mountcastle, T. Nevin, K. Tucker, C. Walker, W. Perez, N. Senzel, A. Benintendi (3+ HR in last 7 days)

Home Run Picks for Friday, May 3

Pick 1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+400)

The first leg of our Round Robin is Vladimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays to go yard against the Nationals who will send Patrick Corbin to the mound tonight. Corbin is a notorious baseball tee who historically gives up tons of bombs.

He's allowed four HR so far this year while Vladdy has launched three home runs of his own and gets a 22.9% probability to leave the yard tonight.

Blue Jays vs. Nationals Full Game Prediction

Pick 2: Juan Soto (+425)

Our next home run pick is another of our top probabilities tonight with the Yankees' offseason acquisition, Juan Soto. The leadoff man has yoked eight homers so far this season in an early bid for AL MVP. His HR metrics are at the top of the charts and he dominates against both righties and lefties.

He gets a 22.0% probability to make it nine home runs on the season tonight. Not only do we get value in his odds as he should be closer to +350, but we also get the short porch in Yankee Stadium, where he's hit five expected HR, (4 actual) this year.

Blue Jays vs. Nationals Full Game Prediction

Pick 3: Elly De La Cruz (+475)

A favorite of ours, the young Reds superstar in the making gets a solid 20% probability to send one out of Great American Ballpark tonight against the Orioles.

De La Cruz has hit eight dingers this year and his Average Exit Velo, Barrel % and Hard-Hit % are in the 90th percentile or better, with the only glaring flaw in his game being his strikeout issues, as many of today's young sluggers face.

Tigers vs. Yankees Full Game Prediction

Pick 4: Christian Walker (+475)

The man in Arizona is in the midst of a little hot streak, and is hitting the ball with some of the best numbers of his career this season. Walker's got four homers in his past seven games, including three in his past three (one 2-HR game).

His Barrel % is in the 98th percentile of all of MLB and he draws a 19.7% probability of launching his eighth home run of the season tonight.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Full Game Prediction

Pick 5: Josh Naylor

We'll close it out with one of our earliest looks today, Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor, whose seven home runs so far are nearly halfway to his home run total of all of last season (17) and he could very well be en route to besting his personal total of 20 from 2022.

He gets an 18.4% probability from the DimersBOT tonight. He hits well off both righties and lefties, but has hit five of his homers off RHP like he'll face tonight when the Angels send out Jose Soriano. The Angels' bullpen has also allowed the third-most home runs this year (18) so we have plenty of opportunity if Naylor doesn't get it early.

Angels vs. Guardians Full Game Prediction


Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.

Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for MLB and NFL, uses his deep knowledge to craft game previews for the NBA, MLB, and NFL. He also brings his expertise to the golf world with tournament previews and parlays for the PGA TOUR and major golf tournaments. Additionally, Dave offers valuable props for NBA, MLB, NHL, and NCAAM basketball, along with best bets for MLB, NHL, and NCAAM. 

When not delving into the world of sports, Dave is an avid advocate for New Haven pizza, enjoys reading comic books, gardening, and spending time with his cats. His broad interests and detailed sports insights ensure that his contributions are both engaging and informative.

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