2025 PGA Championship Picks, Odds, Predictions and Betting Preview: Can Justin Thomas Win Again?

After Rory McIlroy completed his career grand slam with a win at the elusive Masters earlier this year, another one is in play this weekend at Quail Hollow for the 2025 PGA Championship from Thursday, May 15 through Sunday, May 18th.

Jordan Spieth is a PGA Championship victory away from completing his own career Grand Slam at the majors, just the seventh to do so if he can pull it off. Since finishing 2nd here in 2015, this event has become a bit of a white whale for Spieth.

Based on our early PGA Championship predictions, the Dimers model doesn't believe he gets it done, giving him a 0.7% probability to win against +6000 odds, which imply a 1.64% probability.

However, plenty of other storylines abound here, with Scottie Scheffler looking for back-to-back wins, Rory McIlroy chasing his second major of the year and of course, how the LIV crew will fare at this year's second major.

Dimers predictive golf model has run 1000s of simulations on the 2025 PGA Championship, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 bonus code DIMERS.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. Our PGA predictions are sourced from the powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and got off to a productive start this year, most recently hitting our +883 Masters parlay and identifying Scottie Scheffler with value to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

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Who Will Win the 2025 PGA Championship?

Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 PGA Championship, the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:

Scottie Scheffler enters the 2025 PGA Championship as the clear favorite, boasting a commanding 19.1% chance to win - more than double that of any other contender. His likelihood of finishing in the top 5, 10, and 20 is equally dominant at 46.7%, 61.2%, and 74.5%, respectively, underscoring his consistent elite performance and making him the most reliable pick across all tiers of success.

Rory McIlroy, the second-strongest contender, holds an 8.5% win probability and a solid 59.3% chance to place within the top 20, suggesting he is well-positioned to contend but with a notably lower ceiling than Scheffler.

The rest of the field presents a competitive cluster led by Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, and Justin Thomas, all with win probabilities between 3.7% and 4.4%. Their top 20 chances range from 43.9% to 47.2%, highlighting their potential to break into the leaderboard while also reflecting greater volatility.

Notably, Morikawa edges DeChambeau slightly in top-5 probability (17.6% vs. 17.1%) despite a marginally lower win rate, suggesting a strong capacity to perform under pressure.

Collectively, these figures set up a PGA Championship where Scheffler is the benchmark, McIlroy the closest challenger, and the rest are poised for breakout opportunities.

What is the 2025 PGA Championship Course and Layout?

The PGA Championship rotates venues and this year, it'll be at Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, NC where 156 golfers will tee it up.

A 7,626-yard Par 71, Quail Hollow presents a number of challenges with its long greens and water hazards on the final five-hole stretch. The last time Quail Hollow hosted a major, Justin Thomas won the PGA Championship in 2017.

"The Green Mile," a three-hole stretch between 16 and 18 will test even the best ball-strikers, with two of the longer Par 4s on TOUR and a 221-yard Par 3. Average score is above par over this daunting stretch.

Golfers who can hit the ball far and excel on approach from 200+ yards will fare the best, with those who also boast a strong putter getting the biggest advantage against the field.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

PGA Championship Betting Preview

Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are co-betting favorites at Quail Hollow, but only one of them is worth a bet at their best odds.

With the LIV crew in town, there's even more value to find when digging in to the Dimers golf predictions.

We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds, from some Top 5 contenders to longshot dark horses. We'll also highlight some standout prop and placement bets if we find any appealing value when perusing the board.

Scottie Scheffler (+500 on BetMGM)

We'll start off with the World No. 1 and tournament co-favorite.

Scottie Scheffler came up big-time for his first win of the year just two weeks ago, tying a a PGA TOUR 72-hole record with 31-under at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

We called him out as a value play, despite being a short favorite, and we've got that once again. Our 19.1% probability says he should be +420, which is where he's priced on DraftKings. However, we can get him at +500 elsewhere, like on BetMGM.

Scheffler excels with his iron play, ranking 1st on Approach, when combined with his 2nd overall ranking off the tee and 19th in putting, he's lined up for success and some momentum en route to picking up his first major win of 2025.

Justin Thomas (+2200 on DraftKings)

Next up, we're looking at 2x PGA Championship winner, including here at Quail Hollow, Justin Thomas.

Thomas has secured six Top 10s in his 11 events played this year, including a win at the RBC Heritage a few weeks back and three second-place finishes, including just last week.

He's picking up some great form, finishing first or second in three of his past four events and has only finished either in side the Top 10 or outside the Top 25 this year, never in between.

Not only has Thomas won here before at this same event, but he's also 3rd in SG: Total, 5th on Approach and 20th in putting. He's not the most accurate ball striker, but can drive the ball far off the tee, which sets up his better mid-range and short game.

His 3.7% probability says we'd like to get him at +2600 for fair odds, however that's only a 0.6% difference between our prediction and the implied probability. He's as low as +1700 and +1800 on other books, so this is value by that comparison. Further more, you can boost him with DraftKings' daily mystery boosts, or pair him with one of our most likely Top 20 finishers to get better odds.

Russell Henley (+7000 on FanDuel)

Our next two plays are revenge plays, but that's not why we're going with them - there's some great value here.

Henley was one of our picks to win last week and our favorite ladder play at the Truist Championship. He started out hot with an opening round Top 5 before coming apart on Days 2 and 3, before finishing strong with a final round 67.

Yet, he has five Top 10 finishes including a win this year, backed by his excellent approach (16th overall) and his ability to green in regulation, where he ranks 4th against the entire field.

He's not a distance driver, but he's very accurate, which should help him navigate the tree-lined fairways and set him up for his short game strengths.

Based on our model's 2.9% probability, Henley should be +3350, while we can get him at +7000 on FanDuel, double the odds. It's a must-play on value, with just a $0 bet potentially returning $700 in profit.

Shane Lowry (+5500 on FanDuel)

Another guy who burned us last week, we had Lowry to win at +3500. He finished T2, two strokes back after dropping a pair of bogeys in the final three holes.

Not much you can do about that, but he was always mispriced and we got great odds.

We're doing so again, with our 2.2% win probability implying a fair price of +4450 and Lowry is out to +5500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. 

8th in FedExCup points with four Top 10s and a pair of 2nd-place finishes this year, Lowry is very due and his 4th overall strokes gained, 8th in approach and accurate driver should put him in the mix throughout the weekend.

2025 PGA Championship Prop Bets

You can find more winners with value by digging in to our full PGA Championship Predictions with Dimers Pro.

Plus, in addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement and unique market bets to consider for this week's 2025 PGA Championship as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Russell Henley Top 20 (+220 on DraftKings)

Straightforward here - Russell Henley is a top value to win and holds that value throughout his placements. He could make a ladder play this week, but we've got more bets in play than last week so we'll recommend his Top 20 as an official placement bet.

His 39.8% probability would make fair odds of +150 for a nice edge at +220.

Tyrrell Hatton Top English (+300 on DraftKings)

Another regional prop, let's consider Tyrrell Hatton to finish first among the Englishmen. There are 12 in this field, with Hatton projected alongside Tommy Fleetwood at a 33.4% probability to finish Top 20.

The next closest is Aaron Rai at 25.0% and Justin Rose at 23.3%. Everyone else is projected at 12% or lower to finish Top 20.

When putting them in our Head-to-Head Predictor tool, Hatton gets a 45.3% to beat Fleetwood, who gets a 49.5% chance. Against Rai, Hatton is 53.5% and is 54.4% against Rose. We're essentially looking at Hatton to beat these three, as the others are much further down the board. He's finished T20 or better in 4/5 of his most recent LIV events and was T14 at the Masters.

Corey Conners Top Canadian (+160 on DraftKings)

Let's go back to the well for a bet that hit last week and take Corey Conners to finish as the top Canadian.

He beat out Nick Taylor by two strokes and blew past Adam Hadwin who was +1. This field features his usual competition in this market, just four other golfers and once again, Conners projects to clear them all.

He's 31.8% to finish Top 20 - next is Taylor Pendrith down at 17.9% and Mackenzie Hughes at 14.7%. Head-to-head, he's 58.0% to beat Pendrith and 60.8% vs. Hughes, with just one finish outside the Top 20 in his past seven events. 

Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
• Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
• Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
• PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR

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