Scheffler and McIlroy Given 27.6% Combined Probability After 10K Simulations of 2025 PGA Championship

We’ve run the numbers—10,000 simulations of the 2025 PGA Championship—and one thing is clear: Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are in a tier of their own.

After both increased probabilities since our early predictions, it is shown that together they now account for 27.6% of all projected wins at Quail Hollow, according to our predictive analytics model. That leaves the remaining 150+ players in the field with a 72.4% chance to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.

Scheffler leads with a 19.1% chance to win, as the well-rested world No. 1 returns from a strategic week off at the Truist Championship. He’s yet to win a major outside Augusta, but Quail Hollow—with its demand for accuracy, long iron play, and clutch putting—sets up perfectly for his all-around game.

McIlroy, fresh off his emotional Masters breakthrough, clocks in at 8.5%. He’s not only playing with house money now—he’s back at a course where he’s won three times and is widely regarded as the unofficial king of Quail Hollow.

Most Likely Winners of the 2025 PGA Championship

Dimers Pro members can view full win, top-10, and H2H predictions for every player in the field.

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LIV Golfers Hold 15.9% Win Probability as a Group

While Scheffler and McIlroy may headline the simulations, LIV Golf isn’t far behind.

Our model gives LIV players a combined 15.9% chance to win the 2025 PGA Championship, with Bryson DeChambeau leading the way at 4.4%.

Other notables include Joaquin Niemann, who’s been trending in our projections all spring, Brooks Koepka, a proven major winner, and former champions Phil Mickelson and Tyrrell Hatton—both of whom could factor if conditions align.

The LIV contingent remains difficult to price in the market, but our model blends global form and course fit to account for what the sportsbooks might be missing.

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the top chances to win this week according to Dimers' in-house model. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Tournament Overview

• Event: 2025 PGA Championship (Major #2)
• Dates: Thursday, May 15 – Sunday, May 18, 2025
• Location: Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, NC
• Par/Yardage: Par 71 / 7,600 yards (approx.)
• Purse: $17.5 million (Winner receives $3.15 million)
• TV Coverage: ESPN, CBS, ESPN+

Final Thoughts

Whether it’s Scheffler on a mission for his first non-Masters major, or Rory chasing back-to-back major titles at his favorite venue, our simulations point toward another unforgettable week at Quail Hollow.

To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Damien Souness as part of our fact-checking process.