Early 2025 PGA Championship Predictions: Plus, Latest Odds and Tee Times

UPDATE: Tee times for Thursday and Friday are out now! Scroll down for key player timings.

The second major of the golf season is on the horizon, and all eyes are on Charlotte, North Carolina, as the 2025 PGA Championship heads to Quail Hollow. Known for its tight fairways and dramatic closing stretch, Quail Hollow promises another week of elite competition—this time headlined by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and recent Masters champion Rory McIlroy.

According to Dimers’ predictive model, Scheffler enters as the narrow favorite, but McIlroy’s recent form and win at Augusta have made him a close second in both the odds and projections. Behind them, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, and Justin Thomas are all firmly in the mix as the betting board starts to take shape.

2025 PGA Championship Predictions: Can Rory Go Back-to-Back?

Scottie Scheffler returns to action this week after resting during the Truist Championship, and Dimers' model gives him an 18.7% chance to win at Quail Hollow—the highest in the field. McIlroy, however, sits just behind at 8.0% and comes in with major momentum after securing his long-awaited green jacket last month.

• Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 – 18.7%
• Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪 – 8.0%
• Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 – 4.4%
• Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 – 4.1%
• Justin Thomas 🇺🇸 – 3.8%

Rory McIlroy is seeking to win back-to-back majors at a course that has brought him success in the past.

Top-10 Finish Probabilities

Scheffler’s consistency remains unmatched, with a 60.5% chance to finish inside the top 10. McIlroy follows at 42.8%, while DeChambeau and Morikawa are tied in the projections at 29.6%. Justin Thomas rounds out the top five.

• Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 – 60.5%
• Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪 – 42.8%
• Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 – 29.6%
• Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 – 29.6%
• Justin Thomas 🇺🇸 – 28.8%

Scottie Scheffler remains the highest-rated player in the model, even with Rory’s Augusta win.

Full model projections and head-to-head matchup tools are available to Dimers Pro users.

Latest Bet365 Odds for the 2025 PGA Championship

Bet365 currently lists both Scheffler and McIlroy as co-favorites at +470, with strong market support for DeChambeau and rising value opportunities for Thomas and Rahm.

• Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪 – +470 | -175
• Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 – +470 | -175
• Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 – +1100 | +115
• Justin Thomas 🇺🇸 – +1700 | +162
• Jon Rahm 🇪🇸 – +1900 | +187

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PGA Championship Tee Times: Thursday and Friday

Official tee times for Round 1 at the 2025 PGA Championship are now out, with the followinf being key grpups to follow across the first two rounds:

Thursday

First tee:

• 1:03 PM // Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott
• 1:14 PM // Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa
• 1:25 PM // Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Ludvig Åberg
• 1:36 PM // Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim
• 1:47 PM // Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland

Tenth tee:

• 7:38 AM // Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Shane Lowry
• 7:49 AM // Phil Mickelson, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day
• 8:00 AM // Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick
• 8:11 AM // Corey Conners, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Højgaard
• 8:22 AM // Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler

Friday

First tee:

• 1:03 PM // Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Shane Lowry
• 1:14 PM // Phil Mickelson, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day
• 1:25 PM // Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick
• 1:36 PM // Corey Conners, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Højgaard
• 1:47 PM // Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler

Tenth tee:

• 7:38 AM // Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott
• 7:49 AM // Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa
• 8:00 AM // Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Ludvig Åberg
• 8:11 AM // Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim
• 8:22 AM // Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland

Betting Guides for the PGA Championship

• Full player predictions: win and top-10 probabilities for the entire field
• H2H comparison tool: pick smarter matchups for parlays and props
• World rankings: full golf rankings for both PGA and LIV players
• Bet365 bonus code: details on how to claim a $150 bonus for new users

Final Word: Can Rory Keep the Run Alive?

Rory McIlroy is back in the major winner’s circle—and now, he’s eyeing a second straight title. While Scheffler continues to dominate the predictive metrics and enters refreshed after a week off, McIlroy’s resurgence makes him one of the most compelling storylines of the week. Expect plenty of competition from DeChambeau, Thomas, and others as the world’s best descend on Quail Hollow for the 2025 PGA Championship.

To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Dave Garofolo as part of our fact-checking process.