World Cup soccer odds today: Sunday's betting cheat sheet [July 5]

The soccer World Cup 2026 knockout Round of 16 starts today and we have two sudden death matches on today's World Cup schedule, and this betting odds preview is designed to help you navigate Sunday's matches using Dimers' data-driven World Cup predictions on July 5.

Kicking things off today is the match between Brazil and Norway at 4pm, before England vs. Mexico face off at 8pm.

Thanks to DraftKings Sportsbook, we've broken down each of Sunday's Round of 16 matchups below in our World Cup betting preview, with everything you need to know about the teams, the players, the probabilities, the most likely score lines, as well as the sharpest player props for Sunday's two World Cup fixtures.

Today's World Cup 2026 odds - July 5

Dimers' World Cup 2026 odds refer to the Round of 16 forecasts and statistical projections made by our team of data scientists regarding the outcomes of not only the two matches on Sunday, July 5, but also the ultimate winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. These predictions for the 2026 World Cup are generated by highly sophisticated machine learning models that analyze historical odds, data sets, player-specific performance metrics, and team-level compositions that delivered some outstanding betting results.

Brazil vs. Norway odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 5, 4pm (ET)

The high-stakes Round of 16 rolls into Sunday with a star-studded, intercontinental blockbuster. Both heavyweights arrived in the second day of the knockout bracket after navigating incredibly tense, single-goal battles in the previous round.

Brazil booked their ticket to this stage by edging out a highly disciplined Japan squad 2-1 via a dramatic, last-minute match-winner. Norway matched that exact script in their own opener, showcasing their attacking resolve to push past a dangerous Côte d'Ivoire side with a hard-fought 2-1 victory. The prize for advancing from this heavyweight collision is massive: a spot in the Quarterfinals against the winner of the highly anticipated Mexico vs. England clash taking place later today.

The projections establish the Seleção as the definitive front-runner to control the pitch, predicting an expansive, multi-goal script. Here is a direct look at the moneyline splits, total goals expectations, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market favors a Brazil victory inside regulation time, leaving Erling Haaland and the Norwegian squad with a combined 43.9% window to force extra time or secure a major knockout upset:

• Brazil to win: 56.1%
• Draw: 22.0%
• Norway to win: 21.9%

Total goals market (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting the world-class attacking firepower present on both teams alongside their active 2-1 results in the Round of 32, the model heavily leans toward an open encounter that clears the standard benchmark:

• Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%
• Under 2.5 goals: 40.8%

Most likely exact scores

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a dynamic, offensive matchup where a high-scoring draw or a narrow, multi-goal decision carries the highest statistical probability:

• Brazil 1-1 Norway: 10.2%
• Brazil 2-1 Norway: 9.9%
• Brazil 1-0 Norway: 9.0%
• Brazil 2-0 Norway: 8.7%
• Brazil 3-1 Norway: 6.4%

Summary: Brazil enters this high-stakes Sunday knockout clash as a solid 56.1% favorite. Because single-elimination moneylines carry an inherent premium and the model flags a 1-1 deadlock as the single most probable regular-time outcome (10.2%), backing a straight winner requires the right pairing. Given the model's strong 59.2% confidence in Over 2.5 total match goals alongside the heavy preference for both sides finding the net in the score data, backing Both Teams to Score (BTTS) or pairing Brazil or Draw on the Double Chance market with Over 1.5 total match goals builds a highly supported, data-backed angle.xx

England vs. Mexico odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 5, 8pm (ET)

The second day of Round of 16 knockout fixtures rolls on with a massive cross-continental blockbuster. Both teams head into this high-stakes elimination matchup looking to book their ticket to a marquee Quarterfinal clash against the winner of the Brazil vs. Norway tie.

England advanced to this stage after fighting through a highly competitive 2-1 battle against DR Congo, powered by a signature clinical double from Harry Kane. Mexico, by contrast, enjoyed a slightly more straightforward path, showcasing their structural discipline to systematically dismantle Ecuador in a comfortable 2-0 shutout victory.

The predictive metrics award the Three Lions a distinct advantage to control possession and advance, forecasting a highly defensive, low-margin chess match. Here is the direct look at the moneyline percentages, total goals lines, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market favors an England victory within regular time, though Mexico's elite organization leaves a combined 56.6% statistical window for a tie to force extra time or an outright El Tri upset:

• England to win: 43.4%
• Draw: 29.4%
• Mexico to win: 27.2%

Total goals market (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting the enormous pressure of a single-elimination setting and Mexico's defensive identity, the algorithm aggressively targets a low-scoring script, establishing the under as a heavy favorite:

• Under 2.5 goals: 64.9%
• Over 2.5 goals: 35.1%

Most likely exact scores

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a game of ultra-thin margins, where narrow single-goal decisions or low-scoring deadlocks represent the highest individual probabilities:

• Mexico 0-1 England: 14.8%
• Mexico 1-1 Draw: 13.2%
• Mexico 0-0 Draw: 12.2%
• Mexico 1-0 win: 10.9%
• Mexico 0-2 England: 8.9%

Summary: England enters this marquee Sunday knockout match as a 43.4% favorite. However, because the model places significant emphasis on a tight environment—flagging an elite 64.9% probability on Under 2.5 total goals—backing a straight regular-time winner requires caution. Given that the 0-1 win, 1-1 draw, and 0-0 deadlock account for over 40% of the expected outcomes, backing Under 2.5 total match goals provides an incredibly secure foundation, while pairing England or Draw on the Double Chance market with Under 2.5 match goals aligns perfectly with the data.