United States vs. Belgium prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 16]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's World Cup 2026 matchup between United States and Belgium, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model indicates a 35.8% chance of United States winning, a 39.9% chance for Belgium, and a 24.4% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 57.2% chance of going over, with a 59.9% likelihood that both teams score. In the win to nil market, Belgium holds an 18.6% probability to win without conceding, with United States at 16.4%.

For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is a win for either United States or Belgium at 75.6%.

Keep in mind that soccer markets are settled at the end of 90 minutes. Unlike NBA betting where overtime counts, extra time won't factor into these odds unless explicitly noted.

Belgium vs. United States odds

We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

United States	Belgium	Draw
+165	+180	+240

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-132	+108

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

United States vs. Belgium picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Belgium @ +180 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -132 via FanDuel
• Win to Nil: Belgium @ +380 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: United States or Belgium @ -310 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: Yes @ -156 via FanDuel

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Belgium to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

As well as being the most likely winner of the game, the edge provided on Belgium's odds also provide the best value for bettors.

United States vs. Belgium: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
United States 1-1 Belgium	11.3%
United States 1-2 Belgium	8.7%
United States 2-1 Belgium	8.1%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 59.9% chance of both United States and Belgium finding the net and a 40.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

United States vs. Belgium player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Monday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in United States-Belgium:

United States

• Ricardo Pepi: 24.2% probability
• Christian Pulisic: 23.0% probability
• Malik Tillman: 14.8% probability
• Sergino Dest: 12.4% probability
• Weston McKennie: 11.8% probability

Belgium

• Charles De Ketelaere: 18.0% probability
• Leandro Trossard: 17.6% probability
• Kevin De Bruyne: 17.2% probability
• Jeremy Doku: 14.9% probability
• Hans Vanaken: 11.8% probability

United States vs. Belgium game-day updates and essential details

Monday's soccer World Cup action between United States and Belgium at Lumen Field is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: United States vs. Belgium
• Date: Monday, July 6, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Lumen Field

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, United States has a 35.8% win probability on Monday, Belgium has a 39.9% win probability, and there is a 24.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.