Jun 2, 2026
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction updated following 2026 World Cup squads revealed
Read Article Ranking every nations' chances of winning the World Cup in 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
Accurately ranking the chances of all 48 countries taking part in the 2026 World Cup requires far more than just "expert opinion." That's where Dimers' data comes in.
As the 2026 World Cup descends upon North America, fans are bracing for a tournament unlike any that came before. With an expanded field of 48 nations battling for global supremacy, we've used elite data modeling and predictive analytics to rank each country's chance of winning it all.
More teams means more matches, more chaos, and more room for historic heartbreaks and Cinderella stories. But while the human eye looks for romance on the pitch, cold, hard data is looking for the truth.
That is where Dimers’ proprietary soccer modeling technology comes in. Refined over nearly a decade and battle-tested through the data traps of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, our model doesn't care about a team's historical prestige or jersey sales.
According to Dimers' World Cup Futures, sixteen nations enter the tournament with a mathematically rounded 0% chance of lifting the trophy, while another cluster sits on life support between 0.1% and 0.2%. For these teams, including several passionate fan favorites, progressing from the Group Stage is the real goal.
But what about the elite? At the very top of the grid, a select group of powerhouse nations has broken away from the pack, separating themselves with double-digit probabilities. With reigning champion Argentina and traditional titans Brazil, Spain, France, and England all firmly in the mix, the model has crowned a lone mathematical favorite to take home the trophy in 2026.
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Ranking every nations' chances of winning the 2026 World Cup
Below are the results of over 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, from 48th to 1st.
48. 🇭🇹 Haiti (0%)
47. 🇨🇼 Curaçao (0%)
46. 🇳🇿 New Zealand (0%)
45. 🇿🇦 South Africa (0%)
44. 🇯🇴 Jordan (0%)
43. 🇮🇶 Iraq (0%)
42. 🇵🇦 Panama (0%)
41. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia (0%)
40. 🇶🇦 Qatar (0%)
39. 🇬🇭 Ghana (0%)
38. 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina (0%)
37. 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde (0%)
36. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan (0%)
35. 🇨🇩 Congo DR (0%)
34. 🏴 Scotland (0%)
33. 🇹🇳 Tunisia (0%)
Scotland is among 16 competing nations rated as a 0% chance to win the World Cup.
32. 🇦🇺 Australia (0.1%)
31. 🇸🇪 Sweden (0.1%)
30. 🇵🇾 Paraguay (0.1%)
29. 🇨🇿 Czechia (0.1%)
28. 🇪🇬 Egypt (0.1%)
27. 🇩🇿 Algeria (0.1%)
26. 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire (0.1%)
25. 🇮🇷 Iran (0.2%)
24. 🇰🇷 South Korea (0.2%)
23. 🇨🇦 Canada (0.2%)
22. 🇦🇹 Austria (0.3%)
21. 🇹🇷 Türkiye (0.5%)
20. 🇯🇵 Japan (0.7%)
19. 🇪🇨 Ecuador (0.7%)
18. 🇨🇭 Switzerland (0.8%)
17. 🇲🇽 Mexico (0.8%)
16. 🇸🇳 Senegal (1.2%)
15. 🇭🇷 Croatia (1.5%)
14. 🇺🇾 Uruguay (1.3%)
13. 🇺🇸 USA (1.3%)
12. 🇳🇴 Norway (1.4%)
11. 🇨🇴 Colombia (1.5%)
Erling Haaland's Norway is rated a 1.4% chance to lift the World Cup trophy in 2026.
Revealed: The top 10 chances to win the World Cup in 2026
10. 🇲🇦 Morocco (1.7%)
9. 🇧🇪 Belgium (2.3%)
8. 🇳🇱 Netherlands (4.3%)
7. 🇩🇪 Germany (4.6%)
6. 🇧🇷 Brazil (5.4%)
5. 🇵🇹 Portugal (7.6%)
4. 🏴 England (12.4%)
3. 🇦🇷 Argentina (13.1%)
2. 🇫🇷 France (16.6%)
1. 🇪🇸 Spain (18.7%)
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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