World Cup prediction of Argentina to win 3-2 over Spain goes viral after tweet from 2021 resurfaces

The World Cup final between Spain and Argentina is set and fans and bettors alike are making their predictions for who will win, but one viral tweet is making waves due to its longshot prediction for this World Cup on the cusp of coming true - from over 5 years ago.

On July 11, 2021, an account with the handle @actuallyimthe and the display name "dilemma" posted six words into the digital void: "Argentina just beat Spain at the 2026 World Cup final, 3-2."

Argentina just beat Spain at the 2026 World Cup final, 3-2.

— dilemma (@actuallyimthe) July 11, 2021

At the time, Lionel Messi was still chasing his first major international trophy, as this was even before the 2022 World Cup, and the idea of calling out a 2026 final matchup five years out, down to the exact scoreline, is generally the kind of thing you post and forget about.

Except now it's July 2026. Argentina and Spain really are meeting in the World Cup final on Sunday, July 19, at MetLife Stadium, and suddenly a tweet that sat around with a modest amount of engagement for years has blown up on social media

A 3-2 final scoreline would send the online soccer community into an absolute frenzy in the wake of the internet uncovering this five-year-old prediction, but before we crown the poster the next Biff from Back to the Future, just how likely is this to happen?

Argentina vs. Spain already a longshot

Predicting any two teams reaching a World Cup final five years in advance is a longshot on its own; you're picking from dozens of plausible finalists across every confederation, with no idea of how the groups, bracket or even qualifications will shake out.

There hasn't been a back-to-back World Cup champion since Brazil in 1958 and 1962, and prior to the last two editions, scoring in Finals came at a premium.

Getting the exact pairing, Argentina vs. Spain, is an impressive feat, regardless of the score.

Give us a little credit, too. Heading into the tournament, Dimers had Spain as the outright favorite at 18.7%, with Argentina third at 13.1%. We actually flagged Argentina as one of its best value plays of the tournament at +1000 on the sportsbooks against fair odds of roughly +660. Though, to be fair to @actuallyimthe, we had the groups already selected for our model.

How likely is a 3-2 final score?

This is where Dimers' modeling is useful, because it doesn't just tell us who's likely to win, it maps out probabilities for essentially every plausible correct score.

Utilizing dozens of datapoints, including match statistics, team strength, lineups and situational factors, Dimers' uses analytical modeling to produce purely data-driven predictions for every single match, precisely how we also correctly predicted Spain and Argentina to win their semifinals.

According to Dimers' correct-score model for Sunday's final, Argentina winning 3-2 sits at just a 1.3% probability, fair odds of roughly +7590, with sportsbooks pricing it closer to +4000.

That's not just a slim probability, but the 15th most likely scoreline on the board, out of dozens of possibilities. For context, the model's actual favorite outcome is a far tighter, lower-scoring 1-0 Spain win.

A 3-2 scoreline needs a lot to go right (or wrong) along the way: five combined goals and enough chaos that neither defense holds, and that's what really reinforces that 1.3% probability.

Can Argentina triple Spain's goals allowed?

Think Argentina can put up three goals? They'll need to do the unthinkable against Spain, Golden Ball contender Rodri, and Golden Glove favorite, keeper Unai Simón.

Spain has allowed exactly one goal across the entire tournament. One. Argentina, by contrast, has needed multiple late-game comebacks just to reach the final.

Put those together, and you get a final that the market and the model both expect to be low-scoring and tight.

Dimers has the under 2.5 goals sitting at 61.7% probability. A 3-2 game clears that total by a full 2 goals. It's not impossible, but it's a result that would require both defenses, especially Spain's, to have their worst night of the tournament at the same time.

 An Argentina win is also the least likely 90-minute result, as Dimers has Argentina's win probability at 28.2%, with Spain at 43.3% and a draw at 28.5%, with a 58.5% chance of Spain winning regardless of method.

For what it's worth, Argentina won two consecutive knockout matches by a score of 3-2, and won their second World Cup over Germany in 1986 by a score of 3-2, so maybe there's some underlying, data-independent trend at work.

Verdict: Great guess but not a time traveler

None of this means Argentina winning is far-fetched, just that this specific score is the improbable part.

After all, the Dimers' World Cup best bets show a little value on Messi and Co. to go back-to-back as World Cup champs.

Either way, kickoff is 3:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium.

Be prepared with our full Spain vs. Argentina World Cup prediction!