Spain vs. Argentina prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Final]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's World Cup 2026 game between Spain and Argentina, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 43.4% chance of Spain winning, a 27.9% chance for Argentina, and a 28.7% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 62.2% chance of staying under, with a 56.3% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, Spain holds a 27.8% probability to win without conceding, with Argentina given a 17.4% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple potential outcomes, the most likely double chance result is Spain to win or draw at 72.1%.

A quick reminder: standard World Cup markets apply to 90 minutes of regulation play only, excluding extra time unless stated otherwise. This differs from sports like the NBA, where overtime is typically included.

Argentina vs. Spain odds

We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Spain	Argentina	Draw
+135	+285	+213

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
+141	-137

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Spain vs. Argentina picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Argentina @ +285 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ -137 via Polymarket
• Win to Nil: Argentina @ +425 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: Spain or Argentina @ -270 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ -108 via FanDuel

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Spain vs. Argentina: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 Spain win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Spain 1-0 Argentina	13.9%
Spain 1-1 Argentina	13.1%
Spain 0-0 Argentina	11.1%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 43.7% chance of both sides finding the net and a 56.3% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Spain vs. Argentina player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Sunday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Spain-Argentina:

Spain

• Mikel Oyarzabal: 25.6% probability
• Lamine Yamal: 18.5% probability
• Dani Olmo: 14.3% probability
• Alex Baena: 12.8% probability
• Fabian Ruiz: 9.6% probability

Argentina

• Lionel Messi: 24.8% probability
• Julian Alvarez: 16.0% probability
• Nicolas Gonzalez: 7.5% probability
• Enzo Fernandez: 7.3% probability
• Alexis Allister: 6.0% probability

Spain vs. Argentina game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Spain vs. Argentina
• Date: Sunday, July 19, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: MetLife Stadium

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, Spain has a 43.4% win probability on Sunday, Argentina has a 27.9% win probability, and there is a 28.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.