World Cup soccer odds today: Saturday's betting cheat sheet [July 4]

The soccer World Cup 2026 knockout Round of 16 starts today and we have two sudden death matches on today's World Cup schedule, and this betting odds preview is designed to help you navigate Saturday's matches using Dimers' data-driven World Cup predictions on July 4.

Kicking things off today is the match between Canada and Morocco at 1pm, before France and Paraguay face off at 5pm.

Thanks to DraftKings Sportsbook, we've broken down each of Satuday's Round of 16 matchups below in our World Cup betting preview, with everything you need to know about the teams, the players, the probabilities, the most likely score lines, as well as the sharpest player props for Saturday's two World Cup fixtures.

Today's World Cup 2026 odds - July 4

Dimers' World Cup 2026 odds refer to the Round of 16 forecasts and statistical projections made by our team of data scientists regarding the outcomes of not only the two matches on Saturday, July 4, but also the ultimate winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. These predictions for the 2026 World Cup are generated by highly sophisticated machine learning models that analyze historical odds, data sets, player-specific performance metrics, and team-level compositions that delivered some outstanding betting results.

Canada vs. Morocco odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 4, 1pm (ET)

The tournament enters the high-stakes Round of 16, kicking off the next phase of single-elimination football with a compelling stylistic matchup on Saturday.

Canada marches into this tie after grinding out a disciplined 1-0 clean-sheet victory over South Africa in the Round of 32. Morocco, meanwhile, comes off an exhausting emotional roller coaster, outlasting the Netherlands on penalties following a grueling 1-1 deadlock through 120 minutes of extra-time action.

Our projections favor the Atlas Lions to dictate the match and secure passage to the Quarterfinals, leaning heavily toward another structured, low-scoring display. Here's a look at the moneyline probabilities, total goals lines, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market favors Morocco to advance within regular time, though Canada's defensive rigidity keeps a combined 44.6% chance alive for a regular-time draw or a Canadian upset:

• Morocco to win: 55.4%
• Draw: 26.5%
• Canada to win: 18.1%

Total goals market (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting Morocco's elite defensive organization and Canada's safety-first knockout identity, the model heavily anchors itself to a low-scoring, cagey script, pushing the under to a commanding favorite:

• Under 2.5 goals: 62.5%
• Over 2.5 goals: 37.5%

Most likely exact scores

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a game of ultra-thin margins, where narrow single-goal decisions or low-scoring deadlocks dominate the data:

• Canada 0-1 Morocco: 16.5%
• Canada 0-2 Morocco: 12.2%
• Canada 1-1 Draw: 11.8%
• Canada 0-0 Draw: 11.2%
• Canada 1-2 Morocco: 8.7%

Summary: Morocco enters this opening Round of 16 clash as a solid 55.4% favorite. Because single-elimination matchups can quickly turn into chess matches and the model tags a 0-1 Moroccan win (16.5%) or a 1-1 deadlock (11.8%) right at the top, isolating a direct regular-time winner requires caution. Given the model's strong 62.5% confidence in Under 2.5 total match goals, backing the Under provides an exceptionally secure foundation, while pairing Morocco or Draw on the Double Chance market with Under 2.5 match goals aligns seamlessly with the numbers.

France vs. Paraguay odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 4, 5pm (ET)

The high-stakes Round of 16 continues on Saturday with a heavily lopsided cross-continental matchup. Following the Morocco vs. Canada opener, this second fixture puts a dominant tournament favorite up against a resilient underdog fresh off a massive upset.

France marches into this tie looking like an absolute juggernaut, having easily dismantled Sweden 3-0 in their Round of 32 clash. Paraguay, by contrast, comes into this game after playing the ultimate spoiler role, outlasting powerhouse Germany on penalties following a grueling 1-1 battle through 120 minutes of grueling extra-time play.

The projections position Les Bleus as an overwhelming favorite to dictate the terms of this match and secure passage to the Quarterfinals, leaning toward an open, multi-goal script. Here is a look at the moneyline percentages, total goals lines, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market leaves little room for ambiguity, installing France as a massive favorite in regulation while leaving the South American underdogs with a very slim mathematical window to force extra time:

• France to win: 78.9%
• Draw: 15.0%
• Paraguay to win: 6.1%

Total goals market (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting France's clinical attacking depth and the likelihood that Paraguay will eventually be forced out of a pure defensive shell, the model edges toward an active scoreboard clearing the standard threshold:

• Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%
• Under 2.5 goals: 47.1%

Most Likely Exact Scores

The exact scoreline distribution reflects France's statistical superiority, with multi-goal clean-sheet victories heavily leading the individual probabilities:

• Paraguay 0-2 France: 16.4%
• Paraguay 0-1 France: 14.2%
• Paraguay 0-3 France: 12.6%
• Paraguay 1-2 France: 7.9%
• Paraguay 0-4 France: 7.3%

Summary: France enters this second Round of 16 matchup as a dominant 78.9% front-runner. Because their straight regular-time winner price requires a heavy premium on its own, utilizing alternative combinations is the smartest strategy. Given the model's strong preference for clean sheets in the score data—where a 0-1, 0-2, or 0-3 win covers more than 43% of the expected outcomes—backing France to win to nil or pairing a France victory with Over 1.5 total match goals builds a highly logical, supported angle.