Jul 4, 2026
New $10 Kalshi referral code "DIMERS" upgraded for USMNT odds
Read Article As France and Morocco enter Round of 16 action, Polymarket and Kalshi promo code "DIMERS" extends $50 + $10 bonuses into Saturday's World Cup matches
Written by Sina Torki, Sports Writer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Saturday July 4 delivers two Round of 16 matches at opposite ends of the competitive spectrum, and both Polymarket and Kalshi have full prop markets live on each contest. Canada face Morocco at 1:00 PM EDT, followed by France taking on Paraguay at 5:00 PM EDT. The two matches tell very different stories: France are one of the most heavily favored sides of the entire knockout round, while Canada vs Morocco is one of the closest matchups of the Round of 16 with Morocco holding a meaningful but far from insurmountable edge. Traders on both platforms can access sign-up bonuses using promo code DIMERS: deposit $20 on Polymarket and receive $50 in trading funds, or trade $10 on Kalshi and receive a $10 bonus.
Canada vs Morocco — July 4, 1:00 PM EDT
The more competitive of the day's two matches. Kalshi has Morocco advancing at 72% with Canada at 28%. Polymarket's three-way regulation time market is tighter: Morocco at 55%, draw at 28%, and Canada at just 19%, with the team-to-advance market at Morocco 72¢ and Canada 29¢ — both platforms in agreement on the overall shape of the contest. The draw sitting at 28% on Polymarket is the most telling number here: Morocco win more often than not in regulation, but a stalemate heading to extra time is a genuinely live scenario that represents meaningful equity for Canada.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco advances | 55% (reg time) / 72% (advance) | 72% |
| Draw (reg time) | 28% | — |
| Canada advances | 19% (reg time) / 29% (advance) | 28% |
| Morocco -1.5 spread | — | 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 41% |
| Canada over 0.5 goals | — | 54% |
| Morocco over 1.5 goals | — | 47% |
The Morocco -1.5 spread at 28% on Kalshi is the clearest signal in this market: despite Morocco being 72% to advance, a comfortable multi-goal Moroccan margin is priced as a roughly one-in-four outcome. Canada over 0.5 goals at 54% — combined with Morocco over 1.5 goals at just 47% — points toward a tight, low-scoring match where Canada get on the scoresheet more often than not. A 1-0 Morocco win or a drawn 90 minutes heading to extra time are the two most coherent outcomes these numbers are collectively pricing.
France vs Paraguay — July 4, 5:00 PM EDT
France are one of the most lopsided favorites of the entire Round of 16. Kalshi has France advancing at 90% with Paraguay at just 18% on the separate yes/no contracts. Polymarket's three-way regulation time market shows France at 83%, a draw at 13%, and Paraguay at 5%, with the team-to-advance market pushing to France 92¢ and Paraguay 9¢. Paraguay's path to this stage was improbable, but the prediction market has made its assessment clear.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| France advances | 83% (reg time) / 92% (advance) | 90% |
| Draw (reg time) | 13% | — |
| Paraguay advances | 5% (reg time) / 9% (advance) | ~10% |
| France -1.5 spread | — | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 68% |
| France over 2.5 goals | — | 49% |
| Paraguay over 0.5 goals | — | 41% |
Unlike Canada vs Morocco, the France vs Paraguay prop suite actually supports the lopsided headline number. France -1.5 at 62% on Kalshi makes a multi-goal French margin the single most likely specific outcome category — a rare reading in knockout round football where defensive resilience typically narrows margins. The over 2.5 goals at 68% is the highest total of any match in this round of articles, pointing to an expectation of a high-scoring performance from a French side that has been one of the tournament's most prolific attacking teams. Paraguay over 0.5 goals at 41% is the only counterweight: traders see a clean sheet for France as the more probable outcome, but not by an overwhelming margin. For broader World Cup coverage as the knockout round develops, the Dimers prediction market insights hub is updated after every match. For a primer on how prediction markets process knockout round matches, the Dimers guide covers the mechanics in detail.
Promo Code DIMERS: Active on Polymarket and Kalshi for Both Matches
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Promo code | DIMERS | DIMERS |
| New user bonus | Deposit $20, Get $50 | Trade $10, Get $10 |
| Canada vs Morocco | Trade on Polymarket | Trade on Kalshi |
| France vs Paraguay | Trade on Polymarket | Trade on Kalshi |
Enter DIMERS at registration on either platform. The code cannot be applied to an existing account. The Polymarket promo code DIMERS has been verified through June 2026 and unlocks $50 in trading funds when you sign up and deposit $20. Full details on the Polymarket offer are available on the Dimers Polymarket promo code page. To trade either of today's matches on Kalshi with promo code DIMERS, sign up here.
Polymarket is a prediction market platform, not a sportsbook. Users trade positions on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable law. Trading involves risk. Bonus subject to Polymarket's current terms and conditions. Offer valid for new accounts only.
Kalshi: Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, and OH.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Sina brings a unique blend of digital expertise and sports acumen to his writing. He leverages deep research and his own on-field experience to deliver accurate, actionable insights to readers and sports bettors alike.
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