Today in sports: 5 games you should be watching on Monday night

Monday night delivers a high-stakes slate across the court, and the ice. From a "Big Monday" doubleheader in college basketball featuring the nation’s top-ranked team to pivotal NBA Eastern Conference clashes and an NHL showdown in Toronto, sports fans and bettors have no shortage of elite action.

Based on the latest machine learning simulations, injury reports, and betting market data, here are the five games that define the sports landscape tonight.

CBB

1. #1 Duke vs. NC State (7:00pm ET)

College basketball’s "Big Monday" kicks off at the Lenovo Center as the #1 Duke Blue Devils travel to face the NC State Wolfpack. Duke enters this matchup as a heavy favorite, looking to maintain its grip on the top spot in the national rankings.

The prediction: Predictive models give Duke a commanding 80% chance of victory, with a projected final score of 77–68.

The betting angles: While Duke is expected to win, the model identifies value on NC State (+9.5), giving the Wolfpack a 55% chance to cover the spread. The total of 147.5 leans toward the Under (54%).

Top pick: NC State +9.5 (-102) at 55%.

ANALYSIS: See why North Carolina State has a 55% chance of covering against Duke

2. #2 Arizona vs. #6 Iowa State (9:00pm ET)

The spotlight shifts to the McKale Center for a top-10 blockbuster between Arizona and Iowa State. This matchup carries significant weight for NCAA Tournament seeding as both programs look to burnish their resumes in early March.

The prediction: Arizona is the heavy analytical favorite at home with a 79% win probability. The projected score sits at 81–71 in favor of the Wildcats.

The betting angles: The model projects a 57% chance for Arizona (-7.5) to cover the spread. Unlike the Duke game, this total is trending toward the Over (56%) on a line of 149.5.

Top pick: Arizona to cover (-105).

NBA

3. Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors (10:00pm ET)

In the NBA, the Clippers take on the Warriors at the Chase Center. The latest NBA Injury Report is a major storyline here: the Warriors are expected to lean on De'Anthony Melton and Brandin Podziemski, while the Clippers counter with a high-powered trio of Kawhi Leonard, Bennedict Mathurin, and Darius Garland.

The prediction: The Clippers hold a 56% chance of winning a tightly contested game. The projected final score is 109–107.

The betting angle: The Clippers are narrow 1.5-point favorites and are projected to cover at a 51% rate.

Player prop: Kawhi Leonard is the standout tonight, projected for 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists, with a game-high 48 fantasy points.

Top pick: Clippers to win (-122).

ANALYSIS: See why our model gives the Clippers a 56% chance of defeating the Warriors

4. Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks (7:30pm ET)

An Eastern Conference heavyweight bout takes place at Fiserv Forum as the Celtics face the Bucks. Key NBA injury updates suggest Giannis Antetokounmpo will lead Milwaukee, while Boston relies on the production of Jaylen Brown and Derrick White.

The prediction: Boston enters with a 71% win probability and a projected 111–104 victory.

The betting angle: Despite Boston's win probability, the model sees a 54% chance of the Bucks (+7.5) covering the spread at home.

Player prop: Jaylen Brown is projected for a dominant 30 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists.

Top pick: Bucks +7.5 (-110).

ANALYSIS: See why we expect the Celtics-Bucks line of 215.5 points to go over

NHL

5. Philadelphia Flyers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (7:30pm ET)

On the ice, the Maple Leafs host the Flyers at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto enters as the analytical favorite in a game expected to be defined by elite offensive talent and tight goaltending.

The prediction: Toronto has a 55% win probability.

The betting angles: The Flyers (+1.5) are strong candidates to cover the puck line (67%), but the primary betting value lies in the total. The model projects the Under 6 goals (+105) as the best play.

Goal scorer projections: Auston Matthews is the most likely anytime goal scorer at 42.6%, with an 8.6% chance to net the game’s first goal. For Philadelphia, Travis Konecny leads the way with a 34.5% anytime goal probability.

Top pick: Under 6 total goals (+105).

ANALYSIS: See why we give the Flyers (+1.5) a 67% chance of covering the puck line