Scottie Scheffler's missed cut: Omen or overreaction? Why Kalshi and Polymarket reveal an edge at The Open

Scottie Scheffler enters this week's Open Championship at Royal Birkdale as the defending champion and favorite to win in Dimers' golf predictions, but Polymarket, Kalshi, and even the sportsbooks appear to be overreacting is surprising missed cut, his first since 2022, last week at the Genesis Scottish Open.

Even in a "down year" for Scheffler, he ranks well above the field in virtually every major category, and the data-driven Dimers model has him meaningfully ahead of the crowd across every major finish market from Top 20 through outright winner.

Scottie Scheffler's odds and trading ahead of The Open

In every single market, Dimers projects Scheffler higher than the prediction market sites and the sportsbook price.

The gap is smallest at the outright winner market and widest at Top 20, where Dimers' 70.1% dwarfs Kalshi's 64%, a spread that suggests real value on Scheffler contracts in any market.

New to Polymarket? New users who register on Polymarket using the promo code DIMERS and make an initial $20 deposit will unlock a $50 Polymarket sign-up bonus.

Why Kalshi and Polymarket have mispriced Scottie Scheffler at The Open

The obvious driver of the discount is Scheffler's missed cut at last week's Genesis Scottish Open, his first missed cut on the PGA Tour in nearly four years. On a similar links-style setup, that result may have spooked bettors and prediction-market traders alike heading into Birkdale.

But, this is still the same player who has nine top-10 finishes in 15 events this year (also all Top 5s), including a runner-up at the Masters and a T4 at the U.S. Open just last month.

Unlock $10 new-user bonus at Kalshi: New users who register on Kalshi using the referral code DIMERS earn a $10 bonus after their first $10 trade clears.

Since his first major win at the 2022 Masters, Scheffler has finished top 10 in 14 of 19 majors, and 10 of those were Top 5s.

One missed cut on a different golf course, in a non-major, isn't the kind of signal that should move his major probability by several points across four separate markets according to the Dimers model, yet we're seeing value appear in each market as a result.

Best trade on Scottie Scheffler at The Open

With Dimers pricing him higher than Kalshi, Polymarket, and the sportsbooks in every category, the Top 10 and Top 5 markets looks like the most appealing.

First off, Dimers' probability of 52.9% says he should be minus odds on the sportsbooks, but he's available at +100 odds and a 50% implied probability.

On Kalshi and Polymarket, Scheffler is trading even further below 50% and our prediction at 49% and 48%, respectively.

Between his Top 10 pedigree this year, and major history, these are the markets signaling the most value and worth a look this week.

Disclaimer

Polymarket is a prediction market platform, not a sportsbook. Users trade positions on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable law. Trading involves risk. Bonus subject to Polymarket's current terms and conditions. Offer valid for new accounts only. Dimers.com may receive compensation through affiliate partnerships.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, not a sportsbook. Users trade contracts on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable law. Trading involves risk. Bonus subject to Kalshi's current terms and conditions. Offer valid for new accounts only. Dimers.com may receive compensation through affiliate partnerships.