Home Run Picks and Parlay on Dinger Tuesday [July 21, 2026]

1. Mickey Moniak (COL) to hit a home run (+250)

We'll begin with our second-most likely home run hitter of the day, Mickey Moniak in Coors Field.

Everything lines up well for Moniak tonight, from the hitter-friendly confines of his home stadium and warm weather, to his matchup with Nationals starter Miles Mikolas.

Mikolas has given up 20 home runs this year, tied for 10th-most in the league, with 12 of those coming against righthanded batters over just 43.0 IP, and he's prone to multi-HR games; his last five games with a HR allowed saw him give up at least 2.

Moniak's 21.2% probability aligns with his dominance against righthanded pitching, with a .941 OPS and 13 of his 15 home runs against the side. Add in his success against Mikolas' pitch mix of 4-seam/ sinker/slider and Mickey gets all the perfect set up tonight.

2. Jake Burger (TEX) to hit a home run (+420)

Next up, we're going with a Dimers model edge, our highest probability hitter with an edge to go yard today, Jake Burger at 20.6%, which is also a Top 5 probability on the entire night.

Burger is up to 17 HR this year, one more than he had all of last season in a nearly-identical number of plate appearances to date, with three in July and hitting his first since the break last night.

He'll face White Sox lefty starter Noah Schultz, who's given up all 8 of his home runs to righties and while Burger hasn't dominated lefthanders, he has 5 home runs and a .814 OPS against the side.

At 20.6%, anything +385 or longer would be an edge on Burger, so fire him up as our top value pick.

3. Austin Riley (ATL) to hit a home run (+470)

Finally, we'll close things out with Austin Riley of the Braves, who after a seemingly season-long slump, may just be turning things around.

At 17.1%, Riley isn't one of tonight's highest overall, but he's the second highest in his own game, hoping to take advantage of a pitching matchup trending in the wrong way for Padres starter Walker Buehler.

Walker Buehler hadn't pitched well most of the season, but he was limiting home run damage. That's changed, and he's given up a HR in four straight, with seven total. 8 of his 12 HR have come against righthanded hitters like Riley, who's hit all but one of his 12 off righties.

After a homer-less June, Riley is having his best month behind the plate overall and has 3 HR since the break.

For a little extra that may bode well, only one player in this lineup has a home urn in the past against Buehler, and it's Austin Riley. He's got a .389 AVG with 2 RBI and 1 HR in 18 PAs vs. Buehler.

MLB home run parlay bet

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at +10254 at the best odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, returning $,1002.54 off a $10 bet.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.