3M Open predictions, picks and best bets at TPC Twin Cities
The PGA TOUR heads to Blain, MN for the 3M Open and we look for the best betting value from the Dimers model.
The majors are done for the year and the PGA TOUR's race to FedExCup Fall is on, The 3M Open is next on the schedule and once again, we're back with the Dimers golf betting predictions to find the best golfers worth betting on to win or place at this week's tournament.
Thanks to our weekly golf predictions, we've identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship, and cashing our reduced odds H2H parlay at the Masters as some of this year's standout victories.
To take full advantage of all of our golf betting insights ahead of the final major of the year, claim your 3-day free trial of Dimers Pro and get unlimited access to our golf features and more for 72 hours, including articles like this one and our golf parlays.
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3M Open preview
- Date: July 23-July 26, 2026
- Location: Blaine, MN
- Course: TPC Twin Cities
- Par: 71 / 7,431 yards
The PGA Tour returns stateside this week for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota with just three regular-season events before the FedExCup Playoffs. The field of 144 is thin at the top with one major exception, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+270), the only top-30 player in the field. Kurt Kitayama (+2200) returns as defending champion after a third-round 60 last year carried him past Sam Stevens by one shot.
TPC Twin Cities is a par 71 at 7,431 yards, hosting since 2019. The course features bentgrass greens on flat, open terrain dotted with water, and along with a softer set of par 3s and par 4s, regularly produces low scoring, including winning totals of -23 and -24 in two of the past three years.
What separates Twin Cities from other summer birdie-fests is how quickly a round can unravel. Water comes into play on 15 holes, with out-of-bounds scattered throughout, and the course ranks top 15 on Tour in missed-fairway penalty. Players who keep the ball in play find most holes "birdie-able", but those who spray shots risk a big number in a single hole. Driving distance is big here, but the course rewards precision, punishing forced shots and loose swings in the wrong spots.
Now, let's dig into the value!
Who will win the 3M Open?
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 31.8% | 61.6% | 74.0% | 84.0% |
| 2. Maverick McNealy | 4.0% | 17.6% | 29.1% | 45.8% |
| 3. Kurt Kitayama | 3.5% | 16.3% | 27.7% | 43.9% |
| 4. Hideki Matsuyama | 3.0% | 14.2% | 24.9% | 40.9% |
| 5. Keith Mitchell | 2.7% | 11.2% | 21.1% | 36.6% |
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
3M Open best bets
With Scottie Scheffler such a big favorite and commanding over 30% of the win equity at this tournament, bettors should consider the "Winner Without Scheffler" market for the picks below.
You'll find shorter odds, but will still cash if your golfer finishes in second place behind Scheffler.
Dimers' most likely winner: Scottie Scheffler (+275 on bet365)
Win probability: 31.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +215
Scheffler enters as the clear favorite in a field that lacks any other top-30 player.
His lone win of the season came in his season debut, and while he's chasing the top of the leaderboard, he's been more in the mix than anyone else since then: four runner-up finishes, two third-places, and three T4s.
Few players have shown the kind of tee-to-green dominance he has all year, and TPC Twin Cities' demand for precision and clean scorecards suits his game well even if the tournament's history of low, birdie-heavy scoring hasn't always favored the biggest names.
+275 is a short price for an outright winner in a field of 144 golfers, but the gap between him and the rest couldn't be much bigger.
Dimers' best value: Corey Conners to win (+5000 on BetRivers)
Win probability: 2.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +3750 and above
For the biggest difference between market price and the Dimers model, look no further than Corey Conners.
This will be his first start at TPC Twin Cities since the event launched in 2019. His season has been relatively quiet by his own standards, but he's turned things around lately with top-25 finishes in three of his last four starts, including a T7 at the Travelers, and his strong approach play profiles well for a course that rewards accuracy over aggression.
He ranks just outside the Top 20 in driving accuracy as well so if he can dial in with his putter, he should be contending on Sunday.
Maverick McNealy to win (+2800 on BetMGM)
Win probability: 4.0%
Dimers' fair odds: +2400 and above
McNealy is ranked 42nd in the world and has recorded two top-10s in 2026, giving him a reasonable floor heading into Blaine. His 4.0% win probability from the Dimers model is our second-highest in the field.
He's 50th in the FedExCup rankings so he should safely make it into the Fall events, but he should be looking to get there in good form as well.
In four appearances at this event, he's peaked with a T3 in 2024, recording a T16, T49 anda missed cut in his other three tries.
His approach play raises some concerns, but he's 23rd in the field overall in strokes gained, Top 20 in putting and 35th in driving distance.
Mac Meissner to win (+5800 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 1.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +5450 and above
Meissner has as much to play for as anyone in this tournament, and while his 1.8% win probability does signal he's a longshot, it's still within our top 10 most likely winners overall.
Sitting at 70th in the FedExCup rankings, he's right on the fringe of making the playoffs, or sitting out as the Top 70 will secure their spot.
His game can be volatile, which is why he's on the Top 70 bubble despite four Top 10s this year; he has just as many missed cuts and just as many finishes in the 40s.
But, his best outing have come in his latest run, with a T9, T3 and T6 in that run, and in his second outing here last year, he improved from T59 in his debut to T14.
His driving game is below average, but he owns a strong putter, good approach play and ranks 12th in scoring average on TOUR.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS as standout winners of the year.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
