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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am PGA predictions, picks and course preview as McIlroy makes 2026 debut
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR season heads to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, with the 2026 debut of reigning champion Rory McIlroy, and we have the best value bets identified by the Dimers golf model.
The PGA TOUR heads to one of the most recognizable venues in golf this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, now a Signature Event with a $20M purse, 80-player field and no cut, teeing off from February 12-15.
The event uses a two-course rotation: players will play both Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill over the first two rounds alongside amateurs, and then the final 36 holes are played exclusively at Pebble.
Pebble Beach itself is a Par 72 at just 6,989 yards, while Spyglass Hill is a slightly longer Par 72 at 7,071 yards, the two shortest par-72 courses on the PGA TOUR schedule.
But that doesn't mean they play easy. Pebble’s greens average only about 3,500 square feet, the smallest targets players will see all season, and even Spyglass is still well below TOUR average.
Because of that, this week is a classic second-shot golf course. Players who can clean up after hitting the middle of the fairway, and golfers who score on the par 5s while avoiding mistakes on the tricky par 4s will have the advantage. This event historically rewards guys who are elite iron players and precise putters, not bombers.
The weather could also play a major role. Wind is always in play at Pebble and the early forecast suggests some inclement conditions in the final round. Be on the lookout - we famously cashed Wyndham Clark at 80/1 due to a weather-shortened event in 2024.
History matters here, too: every winner in the past 25 years had previously made a cut at Pebble Beach, and most already had a top-10 finish. Experience and patience are huge advantages in a course where positioning matters more than distance.
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The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship. This season, we've accurately identified value on Scottie Scheffler to win and Russell Henley to place Top 10 and Top 20 at the American Express, as well as the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500.
2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview
Date: February 12-15, 2026
Location: Pebble Beach, CA
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links
Par: 72 / 6,989 yards (Pebble Beach, 3 rounds), 7,-71 yards (Spyglass Hill, 1 round)
Purse: $20 million
Previous winner: Rory McIlroy (-21, 267)
Who Will Win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?
Below are the five most likely winners of the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
Scottie Scheffler remains the clear favorite and continues to show why after his season-opening performances, remaining the man to beat as long as he's in the field.
Tommy Fleetwood is one of the TOUR’s steadiest tee-to-green players and thrives in signature events where consistency matters. If the irons cooperate, his precision-based game fits Pebble Beach extremely well.
Rory McIlroy brings proven course equity after winning this event last season and remains one of the few players with a comparable ceiling to Scheffler. His combination of driving advantage and streaky putting gives him massive win upside even if his weekly consistency isn’t quite as stable.
Russell Henley is almost tailor-made for Pebble Beach and after a solid start to the season, he set up as to contend this week.
Ben Griffin hasn't followed up his dominant 2025 with a big performance yet, but his steady profile gives him real Top-20 and sneaky contention potential.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 27.5% | 59.0% | 73.3% | 87.3% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 7.9% | 29.3% | 46.4% | 65.9% |
| Rory McIlroy | 4.3% | 20.9% | 35.5% | 55.0% |
| Russell Henley | 3.9% | 17.4% | 32.0% | 51.4% |
| Ben Griffin | 3.3% | 17.1% | 29.9% | 50.3% |
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Dimers' AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Bets
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
Scottie Scheffler to Win (+320 on Bet365)
Win probability: 27.5%
Dimers' fair odds: +260
Scottie Scheffler enters with a 27.5% win probability after another reminder of why he’s rarely out of a tournament.
Last week he opened uncharacteristically poorly with a 73 in the 1st round, then erased it with a charge to finish one shot shy of a playoff.
He already has two Top-10s in his only two appearances here and thrives even in elite fields such as this one; he won two majors events last season and finished T7 or better in all of them.
The issue is simply price and the books know it. However, Scheffler still comes with an edge at +300 and look for his third Top 5 finish in three events to start the season.
Tommy Fleetwood to Win (+2800 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 7.9%
Dimers' fair odds: +1165
Tommy Fleetwood carries a 7.9% win probability and looks massively undervalued.
The last time he played a U.S. event, he won at 14/1 in the TOUR Championship as we predicted, finally securing his first PGA TOUR title.
He produced eight Top-10s in 19 events last season and statistically fits extremely well, ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained overall and 6th on approach.
Pebble rewards precision more than power, which suits him, and he’s improved his finish each time he’s played here, peaking with a T22 last year.
Model-wise, he shows edges in each placement market and profiles as a strong ladder play, buoyed by his 65.9% probability to finish Top 20 at plus-money odds.
Russell Henley to Win (+3200 on bet365)
Win probability: 3.9%
Dimers' fair odds: +2500
Russell Henley sits at 3.9% to win and quietly checks almost every Pebble Beach box.
He ranked 4th in total Strokes Gained last season and finished Top-15 in tee-to-green, around-the-green, and approach - remember, accuracy and iron play matter more than distance here. He also putts well, a crucial factor on these small greens.
Results at this event are mixed overall, but he broke through with a T5 last year, his best finish in six tries, alongside his previous best, a T15.
Our model also finds outright edges in Top 20 and Top 10, setting up Henley as another competitive ladder play.
J.J. Spaun to Win (+6000 on BetMGM)
Win probability: 2.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +4450
J.J. Spaun owns a 2.2% win probability and is more of a price-driven play than backing a guy in form.
The reigning U.S. Open champion has started 2026 slowly with a T40 and a missed cut, and his course history isn’t flashy with four missed cuts to begin his Pebble career before improving to a T16 in 2022.
Still, his ball-striking profile from last season fits these courses well if that form returns.
An outright win is longshot territory, but bettors can find solid value on him for even just a Top 20 finish at +188 and 42.6%.
More Ways to Bet on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Keep an eye out for more Pebble Beach content, including our head-to-head matchup parlay and more!
Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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