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The American Express PGA predictions, picks and course preview at PGA West
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR season continues with the American Express at PGA West in La Quinta, CA and we have the best value bets identified by the Dimers golf model.
The PGA Tour heads to La Quinta for the 2026 American Express at PGA West, teeing off from Thursday, January 22 through Sunday, January 25.
Featuring a full 156-player field made up of pros and amateurs, three-course rotation and a 56-hole cut, this event is one of the more unique stops on the entire schedule.
Every player will see the Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club, and the Pete Dye–designed Stadium Course once through the first three rounds, with the final round returning to the Stadium Course. While only 52 pros are on the course each day, they’re paired with amateur partners in groups of four, so the rounds will be long.
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Fifteen of the past 17 champions played at least one of the opening Hawaii events, with the Hawaii swing notably condensed to just the Sony Open this year. Historically, this tournament rewards players who already have their timing dialed in rather than those still searching for it, something to consider when browsing our predictions.
The American Express has averaged a winning score of 26-under over the past seven years, and the desert conditions combined with the pro-am setup make these courses extremely player-friendly, with those players who can shorten the course with their approach play likely finding themselves in contention late.
Reigning champ Sepp Straka is in the field, along with the 2026 debut of World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler as the favorite to win.
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, accurately identifying Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship, hitting a Ben Griffin ladder and Scottie Scheffler win at the Procore Championship, correctly predicting Xander Schauffele's +1100 win at the Baycurrent classic, and Ben Griffin to win the World Wide Technology Championship.
2026 American Express Preview
Date: Jan. 22-25, 2026
Location: La Quinta, California
Course: Pete Dye Stadium Course (2 of 4 rounds)
Par: 72 / 7,210 yards (Stadium Course)
Purse: $9.2 million
Previous winner: Sepp Straka (-25)
Who Will Win the 2026 American Express?
Below are the five most likely winners of the 2026 American Express at PGA West this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
Scottie Scheffler - The World No. 1 didn’t play last week at the Sony Open, but he closed the 2025 season as the most dominant player on Tour and now opens 2026 with a massive 34.5% win probability. Even without recent reps, his elite ball-striking gives him an overwhelming Top-10 floor in a low-scoring setup like PGA West.
Ben Griffin - Griffin opened the year with a gritty T19 at the Sony Open after posting two over-par rounds while still finishing inside the top 20. With a strong close to the 2025 season and solid history at PGA West, his 56% Top-20 probability makes him one of the steadiest options this week.
Russell Henley - Henley’s Sony Open was undone by one off-round, but his ball-striking remains sharp following a consistently strong finish to the 2025 season. With a 50% Top-20 probability and reliable approach play, this course sets up well for another high-floor performance.
Matt Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick makes his season debut after ending 2025 on a tear, logging six Top-20s in his final seven starts, including four Top 10s. While birdie conversion is the question mark, his all-around game still projects him as a strong contender in his American Express debut.
Harry Hall - Hall carried late-2025 momentum into the Sony Open with a career-best T6, briefly sitting just two shots off the lead on Saturday. With confidence high and slightly under 50% Top-20 probability, he looks well-positioned to build on last year’s solid PGA West showing.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 34.5% | 64.8% | 76.8% | 86.2% |
| Ben Griffin | 5.7% | 24.6% | 38.8% | 56.2% |
| Russell Henley | 4.8% | 20.4% | 33.8% | 50.0% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 3.4% | 15.8% | 28.4% | 44.3% |
| Harry Hall | 3.3% | 16.4% | 27.2% | 45.9% |
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Dimers' American Express Best Bets
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
Scottie Scheffler to Win (+320 on BetRivers)
Scottie Scheffler opens his 2026 season as the World No. 1 after missing this event last year while recovering from an offseason hand injury.
His history at the American Express is solid but not dominant, highlighted by a solo third in his tournament debut back in 2020, finishing outside the Top 10 each iteration since, and he has yet to win within his first five starts of any season.
From a numbers standpoint, Scheffler projects for a massive 34.5% win probability, implying fair odds closer to +190, which makes the +320 price a clear edge, despite how short of a price it is.
He’s capable of winning anywhere, but in a birdie-fest with deep win equity, bettors may want to look at longer odds down the board with similar edges.
Ben Griffin to Win (+2000 on DraftKings)
Ben Griffin arrives off a hard-fought T19 at the Sony Open, a finish that looks better on closer inspection given he was the only player inside the top 30 to post as many as two over-par rounds.
His comfort level at PGA West is notable, with finishes of T9 and T7 in his last two trips, suggesting this venue consistently brings out his best.
Griffin projects for a 5.7% chance to win this week, translating to fair odds around +1650, which gives +2000 real value at the top of the board.
That value extends to placement markets as well, where his 56.5% Top-20 probability makes him playable up and down the ladder.
Matt Fitzpatrick to Win (+4000 on DraftKings)
Matt Fitzpatrick makes his season debut after a slow start to 2025 that eventually turned into one of the strongest closing stretches of his year for any golfer.
He finished the season with six Top-20s in his final seven starts, including four Top 10s, reminding everyone of his upside when things click.
This will be his first appearance at the American Express, and the main concern is scoring, as he ranked below average in Birdie or Better last season and this is an event that routinely turns into a shootout.
Even so, a 3.4% win projection suggests fair odds closer to +2900, leaving some value at +4000, with him available as short as +3000.
Harry Hall to Win (+4000 on DraftKings)
Harry Hall started his season in great form at the Sony Open, posting a career-best T6 and briefly sitting just two shots off the lead heading into Sunday’s final stretch.
That performance snapped a rough end to his 2025 season and suggested he’s quickly returned to midseason form.
Hall’s best finish at the American Express is a T21 last year, but his comfort level here appears to be improving.
With a 3.3% win probability and fair odds near +2900, the +4000 number gives him one of the clearest edges among longer shots on the board, with bettors who got him at +4500 earlier this week getting a bigger advantage.
Best Props at the American Express
With plenty of value in the top contenders, we're highlighting a couple other way to use the Dimers data.
Russell Henley Ladder Play
Russell Henley’s week at Waialae was derailed by one poor round, but the broader picture still points to strong form heading into the desert.
His best finish at the American Express was a T14 in 2022, and this setup tends to reward his consistency and elite iron play more than raw ceiling.
That makes him particularly appealing in placement markets, where a roughly 50% Top-20 probability at +125 stands out as one of the steadier options, and he draws an edge in Top 10 (33.8% at +275) and Top 5 (20.4% at +550).
Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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