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Read Article 2026 U.S. Open predictions: Golf picks and best bets at Shinnecock Hills
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
It's time for the third golf major of the year at the U.S. Open, and we break down the best bets from the Dimers model as Scottie Scheffler looks to complete the career grand slam.
It's major week for the third time on the PGA TOUR, with the 126th U.S. Open teeing off at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club from Thursday, June 18, through Sunday, June 21 and we're back with the Dimers golf betting predictions to find the best golfers worth betting on to win the coveted title this weekend.
Thanks to our weekly golf predictions, we've identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship, and cashing our reduced odds H2H parlay at the Masters as some of this year's standout victories.
To take full advantage of all of our golf betting insights ahead of the third major of the year, claim your 3-day free trial of Dimers Pro and get unlimited access to our golf features and more for 72 hours, including articles like this one and our golf parlays.
Learn more below!
2026 U.S. Open preview
- Date: June 18-June 21, 2026
- Location: Southampton, NY
- Course: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
- Par: 70 / 7,440 yards
Shinnecock Hills returns to center stage for the first time since Brooks Koepka hoisted the trophy in 2018, and the infamously tough test looks to be as unforgiving as ever. The layout is a par 70 that stretches to 7,440 yards, but raw yardage tells only a fraction of the story. Winds threaten the early rounds in particular, adding a dicey element to the game.
Precision on approach and elite putting, particularly from distance, are non-negotiables for anyone hoping to survive the weekend.
The numbers from 2018 paint a stark portrait of what awaits the field, when only two holes averaged under par, the par 5s at 5 and 16 and the field saw the highest scoring average in a decade. In short, ending a round at even par on any given day may well be good enough to contend.
Brooks Koepka won last time Shinnecock hosted in 2018, last year's champion J.J. Spaun arrives in good form to defend last year's title, and Scottie Scheffler needs a win to complete the career grand slam.
Now, let's dig into the value!
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 15.1% | 40.7% | 56.7% | 72.5% |
| 2. Rory McIlroy | 6.6% | 24.0% | 38.6% | 57.2% |
| 3. Jon Rahm | 4.8% | 19.2% | 32.0% | 50.8% |
| 4. Tommy Fleetwood | 4.1% | 17.2% | 29.1% | 46.9% |
| 5. Cameron Young | 4.0% | 16.1% | 28.2% | 44.2% |
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
Dimers' most likely winner: Scottie Scheffler to win (+550 on BetRivers)
Win probability: 15.1%
Dimers' fair odds: +560
The world number one enters Southampton as the heavy favorite, and for good reason, even though he hasn't won since his opening tournament of the year.
Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total and Tee-to-Green, has won three of his last 10 major appearances with eight top-10 finishes in that span, and arrives with a short game that is elite when he's dialed in, ranking third on tour in SG: Around-the-Green and 19th in putting. And that's with a putter that's struggled this year.
Aside from his skill, the storyline writes itself: a win at Shinnecock would complete the career Grand Slam on his 30th birthday.
He's right around fair odds at Dimers' 15.1% win probability, and if he's dialed in from the fairway, his longer odds than usual will seem like a bargain come Moving Day,
U.S. Open best value bets
Russell Henley to win (+4000 on BetMGM)
Win probability: 3.0%
Dimers' fair odds: +3230 and above
Henley arrives at Shinnecock as arguably the best fit on the entire entry list for what the course demands. As the PGA Tour's leader in fairways hit and scrambling, he possesses exactly the skill set this layout rewards.
He's done it on big stages this year, winning the Charles Schwab Challenge and posting a T3 at the Masters, and he finished T25 here in 2018.
He's also 12th on tour in overall Strokes Gained, making him one of the more well-rounded players in the field. The mixed major results, that Masters T3 followed by a missed cut at the PGA Championship, are worth noting, but at 40-to-1, Henley is one of the most compelling value plays of the week with his fair odds at +3230.
Patrick Cantlay to win (+5000 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 2.5%
Dimers' fair odds: +3900 and above
The mental game is underappreciated in golf and few players in the world are better suited temperamentally as well as statistically for a U.S. Open than Patrick Cantlay
He owns top-15 finishes at every U.S. Open from 2021 through 2024, ranks ninth on tour in bogey avoidance, and is an excellent scrambler, all traits that translate directly to a successful par-70 grind at Shinnecock. He's in strong recent form, with three top-10 finishes among five top-20s in his last six starts, including a T12 at the Masters.
Some putting inconsistency has crept in this season, which is a legitimate concern on the greens that ranked hardest in conversion rate last time it played host. But if the flat stick cooperates, Cantlay at 50-to-1 offers the kind of quiet, edge we love to bet on here at Dimers.
JJ Spaun to win (+5900 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 1.9%
Dimers' fair odds: +5160 and above
J.J. Spaun is looking to defend his first major championship win after last year's back-nine comeback that included a 65-foot hole-out to seal the deal.
This year, he owns a Valero Texas Open win and four top-15 finishes, including two top-10s, show he's playing some of the best golf of his career right now, a big improvement from two Top 40s and four missed cuts in his first seven events of the year.
The concern is his putting, which has been a weakness and will be sorely tested on greens that made the 2018 field look helpless. At nearly 60-to-1, Spaun represents a speculative option to run back his title, and a small wager dart throw for bettors looking for a longshot who has already proven he can win a major under pressure.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS as standout winners of the year.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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