It’s time to gear up for Super Bowl 58 and we’re looking at some notable trends, facts and stats to know before you dive into your wagers for when the Kansas City Chiefs duke it out with the San Francisco 49ers on February 11 in Las Vegas. By combining these data points with our DimersBOT projections, we can identify the most bet-worthy opportunities.

From the moment the conference championships wrapped up all the way until kickoff of the Super Bowl, Dimers will bring you our trusted analytics, powered by our in-house predictive A.I. models to deliver you the key insights you need to turn a profit on game day. Between our best NFL bets, hot NFL player props which have gone 17-3 over the past two weeks and our Chiefs vs. 49ers game prediction, there’s no shortage of completely free resources at your disposal.

CONTEST: Win an Exclusive Dimers Merch pack with our Big Game Giveaway

Speaking of free, no betting experience is complete without maximizing the promo offers available in your state. With new books launching in some states, it’s not always easy to stay on top of the exclusive offers that can net you up to hundreds of dollar in bonus bets, like the Bet $5, Get $158 promo on BetMGM for the Big Game. Learn more via Dimers’ Best Sportsbooks section, complete with detailed reviews highlighting each book’s pros and cons.

Postseason Trends, Fact and Stats to Know for the Super Bowl

Christian McCaffrey has 90+ rushing yards and 2 TDs in both playoff games

I mean, is anyone even surprised? Christian McCaffrey is an absolute dog when he’s healthy, something he’s been ever since he came over to the Niners. He had five games with multiple scores in the regular season and we called him out as a value play for 2+ touchdowns last week against the Lions and he was one reception shy of cashing our second parlay of the day on Sunday.

DimersBOT projects McCaffrey for big Super Bowl performance, with 101 rushing yards and a huge 76% probability to score an anytime touchdown. His rushing line is set at 89.5, identifying an over opportunity.  Additionally, we see he yet again has value to score twice at our model’s 35% probability against his +290 odds on FanDuel.

Update: as of Feb. 8: McCaffrey's rushing line has crept up a couple yards and is now at 91.5 with our model's projection holding strong. He's now just +230 to score 2+ TDs

Travis Kelce has more Touchdowns this postseason (3) than in Weeks 6-18

Throught the season, it’s been a year of highs and lows for Travis Kelce. He’s effectively become the face of the NFL amidst his relationship with Taylor Swift, while statistically having his worst regular season since 2015 (he was still very good).

Perhaps he, like the rest of the Chiefs, was simply saving his best for when it matters most. He’s dominated this postseason with at least 70 yards in each game, three touchdowns over the past two and a perfect 11 target, 11-catch performance on Sunday. Will he shine on the biggest stage?

Our model gives Kelce a 69-receiving yard projection while the books have set his line at a razor sharp 68.5. For a touchdown, we project him with a 39% probability to score, which would make our fair price for him around +150, a bit longer than his +100 odds right now.

Isiah Pacheco has scored and hit his rushing yards over in all 3 postseason games

No matter how, Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco has cleared his rushing yards mark in three-straight playoff games. He just barely went over in the AFC Championship and it was by way of a lateral that was initially ruled a passing play before it was corrected to a rush, but that and his touchdown helped us cash our +468 AFC Championship parlay.

He’s a true RB1, seemingly mocking the Ravens’ abandonment of the run game, touching the ball a whopping 28 times against Baltimore. It was one of his least efficient games on the ground (2.8 YPC) of the whole season, yet the Chiefs still trusted him with the workload. Despite the 49ers’s touted defense, they’ve let the Packers  and lions run all over them , particularly to the outside where Pacheco can be most dangerous.

For the Super Bowl, DimersBOT projects him for 86 rushing yards and a 50% TD probability, the highest in the game besides CMC. His rushing line is 64.5 and he’s -125 to score on DraftKings (best odds as of writing) while our true fair price would be +100. A parlay of both props pays out at +170 on BetMGM.

The Chiefs have covered the spread in all 3 postseason games. The Niners haven’t covered in either of theirs.

Underdogs? Yeah, right. The Chiefs pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes in the regular season, putting in a modest 11-6 record by Kansas City standards and failing to secure the first-round bye. It mattered not one bit, as they cruised past the Dolphins 26-7, covering the 4.5 points with ease, before upsetting Buffalo as 2.5-point underdogs and thumping the Ravens as even bigger dogs at 4.5 points.

The 49ers have had to grind out their two postseason victories, falling behind in both games, notably 21-7 against the Lions before engineering a masterful second-half comeback to send Detroit packing. They won by just three in both those games, though, failing to cover the much higher 7.5 and 10-point spreads against Detroit and Green Bay, respectively.

The spread for this game is sure move back and forth leading up to the Super Bowl. After opening at -2.5 in favor of the 49ers, it shifted to just -1, and now sits at -1.5. DimersBOT gives the 49ers a 52% probability to cover that spread, which you can get for nearly even money at -102 on DraftKings.

Historical Super Bowl Trends

Super Bowl Winners are 47-7-3 Against the Spread All Time

There’s not a whole lot to unpack here other than the team that wins, often does so comfortably. Whether the underdog winning outright or the favorite leaving little doubt over their victory, winners of the Big Game tend to cover.

When you also consider that evenly matched teams (like this year’s Chiefs and Niners), are more likely to have a narrow spread, it becomes easier for the favorite to cover that number. Consider the spread of -1.5, where the favored Niners would cover with just a two-point win, practically the lowest possible margin of victory.

The last favorite to cover in the Super Bowl? Kansas City (-1.5) with a 31-20 victory over the 49ers in Super Bowl 54.

The Over/Under is nearly 50/50 all time, at 28-27-1

Looks like the ceremonial clin flip isn’t the only toss-up in Super Bowl history. Through 57 editions of the Big Game, it’s practically deadlocked (no O/U for SB1).

The Chiefs and 49ers combined have gone 17-22 to the over throughout the regular season and playoffs this year, including a 2-3 output in the playoffs.

Against the current total of 47.5, our model is projecting a 53% probability of going under. One of the sharpest lines, this isn’t an easy one to bet, so choose wisely and be sure to check our model’s projections for the latest odds as February 11 draws closer.

More Super Bowl 58 Resources

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Betting 101: Novelty Props

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Novelty Props: A State-by-state guide

Our +600 Super Bowl Same Game Parlay

Please Gamble Responsibly 

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