Storm vs. Mystics prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [7/12/2026]
Get Seattle Storm vs Washington Mystics predictions for WNBA Sunday.
WNBA action continues on Sunday at 3:00 PM ET as the Seattle Storm lock horns with the Washington Mystics at CareFirst Arena.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Mystics as the most likely winner of the Storm vs. Mystics game.
The Mystics, who have star players such as Shakira Austin, Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron, will face off against the Storm, featuring Dominique Malonga, Natisha Hiedeman and Awa Fam.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Storm vs. Mystics prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mystics a 71.7% chance of defeating the Storm.
According to our model, the Mystics (-4.5) have a 55.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 159.5 points has a 58.6% chance of going over,.
Storm vs. Mystics odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Storm | Mystics |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-106) | -4.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +170 | -180 |
| Total | o159.5 (-102) | u159.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Storm vs. Mystics picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mystics -4.5 | novig-105 |
| Moneyline | Mystics | -180 |
| Total | Over 159.5 | -102 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 159.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Storm vs. Mystics player props
Betting on Storm vs. Mystics WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at CareFirst Arena.
Dominique Malonga is expected to lead the Storm with 17 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists, while Shakira Austin is projected to have 17 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mystics.
For early game action, the data identifies Kiki Iriafen as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Storm prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Storm are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malonga | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 37 |
| N. Hiedeman | 14 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 29 |
| Awa Fam | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| F. Johnson | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| Jade Melbourne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
Mystics prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mystics:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakira Austin | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 39 |
| Kiki Iriafen | 16 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 34 |
| Sonia Citron | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Cotie McMahon | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| M. Onyenwere | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
Storm vs. Mystics game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Mystics and Storm at CareFirst Arena is scheduled to commence at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: CareFirst Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Mystics, with a 71.7% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
