Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [7/11/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx predictions for WNBA Saturday.
The Minnesota Lynx will face the New York Liberty in WNBA action at Target Center on Saturday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Lynx as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Lynx game.
The Lynx, who have stars like Natasha Howard, Kayla McBride and Olivia Miles, will face off against the Liberty, who feature Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lynx a 66.7% chance of beating the Liberty.
According to our model, the Liberty (+4.5) have a 51.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 174.5-point over/under has a 59.6% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Lynx odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Lynx |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | +165 | -135 |
| Total | o174.5 (-110) | u174.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Lynx picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty +4.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Lynx | -135 |
| Total | Under 174.5 | hard_rock-108 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 174.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Lynx player props
Looking for Liberty vs. Lynx WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 18 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists, while Natasha Howard is projected to have 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Lynx.
When evaluating the first basket market, Breanna Stewart is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 14.5% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 37 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 17 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 36 |
| Jonquel Jones | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Pauline Astier | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| Marine Johannes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
Lynx prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Howard | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 39 |
| Kayla McBride | 17 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 31 |
| Olivia Miles | 15 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 34 |
| C. Williams | 14 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 32 |
| Nia Coffey | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
Liberty vs. Lynx game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Lynx and Liberty at Target Center is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Target Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with a 66.7% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
