Liberty vs. Tempo prediction: Why New York is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [7/12/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Toronto Tempo will face the favored New York Liberty in WNBA action at Bell Centre on Sunday, starting at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Tempo game.
The Tempo, with stars such as Marina Mabrey, Isabelle Harrison and Maria Conde, will face off against the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Tempo prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model gives the Liberty a 68.6% chance of defeating the Tempo.
According to our model, the Tempo (+6.5) have a 55.6% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 176.5 points has a 61.5% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Tempo odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Tempo |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6.5 (-110) | +6.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -245 | +225 |
| Total | o176.5 (-106) | u176.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Tempo picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tempo +6.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Tempo | +225 |
| Total | Under 176.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 176.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Tempo player props
WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday's Liberty vs. Tempo game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Bell Centre.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Marina Mabrey is projected to have 18 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists for the Tempo.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Marina Mabrey as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 41 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 16 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 35 |
| Jonquel Jones | 15 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Satou Sabally | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Leonie Fiebich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
Tempo prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Tempo:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Mabrey | 18 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 34 |
| I. Harrison | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 |
| Maria Conde | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| Nyara Sabally | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 23 |
| Laura Juskaite | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
Liberty vs. Tempo game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Tempo and Liberty at Bell Centre is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 68.6% win probability, will likely beat the Tempo in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
