Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Saturday's WNBA game [7/11/2026]
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces predictions for WNBA Saturday.
The Las Vegas Aces will square off with the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Saturday, starting at 6:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Aces game.
The Aces, who have the likes of A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, are set to take on the Mercury, who feature Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Aces a 77.5% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+9.5) have a 55.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 170.5-point over/under has a 55.1% chance of staying under,.
Mercury vs. Aces odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (-105) | -9.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +370 | -440 |
| Total | o170.5 (-110) | u170.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Aces picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +9.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | +370 |
| Total | Under 170.5 | hard_rock-110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +9.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Aces player props
WNBA player props are a great way to wager on the Phoenix vs. Las Vegas matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 18 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 26 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists for the Aces.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 28 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 46 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 23 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| Alexa Held | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
Aces prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 26 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 54 |
| Jackie Young | 19 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 40 |
| Chelsea Gray | 12 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 34 |
| Jewell Loyd | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
| NaLyssa Smith | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
Mercury vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Aces and Mercury at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to commence at 6:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 77.5% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
