May 29, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, May 29, 2026
Read Article Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: New York favored to win Friday's WNBA game [5/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty predictions for WNBA Friday.
The New York Liberty will square off with the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Barclays Center on Friday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Liberty game.
The Liberty, powered by Breanna Stewart, Satou Sabally and Jonquel Jones, will face off against the Mercury, featuring Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Liberty a 73% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Mercury and Liberty each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 170.5-point over/under has a 58% chance of staying under.
Mercury vs. Liberty odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +194 | -225 |
| Total | o170.5 (-110) | u170.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Liberty picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty -6.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -225 |
| Total | Under 170.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 170.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Liberty player props
WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Friday's Mercury vs. Liberty game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 18 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 17 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 51 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| Jovana Nogic | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| Natasha Mack | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
Liberty prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 39 |
| Satou Sabally | 14 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
| Jonquel Jones | 13 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Pauline Astier | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
| Marine Johannes | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
Mercury vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details
Friday's action between the Liberty and Mercury at Barclays Center is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Friday, May 29, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Barclays Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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