Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: New York favored to win Friday's WNBA game [5/29/2026]

The New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury will lock horns in the WNBA at Barclays Center on Friday, with tipoff at 7:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Liberty game.

The Liberty, powered by Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Satou Sabally, are set to take on the Mercury, who feature Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 71% chance of defeating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Liberty (-5.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 170.5-point over/under has a 58% chance of staying under.

Mercury vs. Liberty odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mercury	Liberty
Spread	+5.5 (-106)	-5.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+195	-215
Total	o170.5 (-110)	u170.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Liberty picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Liberty -5.5	-110
Moneyline	Liberty	-215
Total	Under 170.5	-105

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 170.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Liberty player props

WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Friday's Phoenix vs. New York matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 18 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.

For early game action, the data identifies Breanna Stewart as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	18	4	2	2	30
Alyssa Thomas	17	10	10	0	51
DeWanna Bonner	11	6	1	1	25
Jovana Nogic	9	1	1	2	14
Natasha Mack	7	8	1	0	25

Liberty prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	18	7	3	1	39
Jonquel Jones	13	8	2	2	32
Satou Sabally	11	4	2	2	22
Marine Johannes	10	3	3	3	23
Pauline Astier	10	3	3	1	21

Mercury vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details

Friday's matchup between the Liberty and Mercury at Barclays Center is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
• Date: Friday, May 29, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Barclays Center

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Friday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.