Jun 22, 2026
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Read Article Mercury vs. Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 21 points in Monday's WNBA matchup [6/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Indiana Fever predictions for WNBA Monday.
The Indiana Fever and Phoenix Mercury will lock horns in the WNBA at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Monday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Fever as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Fever game.
The Fever, led by Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston, are set to take on the Mercury, who feature Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Alexa Held.
Clark, the sweet-shooting guard for the Fever, is expected to deliver a standout performance with a projected 21 points and 3 threes.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Fever prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Fever, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Fever a 71.0% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+6.5) have a 53.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 60.9% chance of staying under,.
Mercury vs. Fever odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Fever |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +210 | -235 |
| Total | o177.5 (-110) | u177.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Fever picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +6.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Fever | -235 |
| Total | Under 177.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Fever player props
Looking for Phoenix vs. Indiana WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 17 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists, while Kelsey Mitchell is projected to have 23 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists for the Fever.
For early game action, the data identifies Aliyah Boston as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 27 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 45 |
| Alexa Held | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
Fever prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fever:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell | 23 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 36 |
| Caitlin Clark | 21 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 49 |
| Aliyah Boston | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 37 |
| S. Cunningham | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| M. Billings | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
Mercury vs. Fever game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Fever and Mercury at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever
- Date: Monday, June 22, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Conclusion
We predict the Fever, with a 71.0% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Monday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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