Jun 22, 2026
Best WNBA bets today: Monday's picks include Mercury vs. Fever play [6/22/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, June 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 6/22.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, June 22, 2026—are live with the Tempo's Marina Mabrey projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Mabrey, Dominique Malonga and Aliyah Boston lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (June 22, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 15.5% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 14.0% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 13.8% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 13.6% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 12.9% |
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 12.7% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 12.0% |
| Aaliyah Edwards (Sun) | 11.9% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 11.9% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 11.9% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.8% |
| Isabelle Harrison (Tempo) | 11.4% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 11.3% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 11.3% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 11.3% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 11.1% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 10.8% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 10.7% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 10.7% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 10.7% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 10.3% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 10.2% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 9.7% |
| Temi Fagbenle (Tempo) | 9.3% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 9.1% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 8.8% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 8.7% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 8.7% |
| Saniya Rivers (Sun) | 8.2% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 8.2% |
| Monique Akoa-Makani (Mercury) | 8.0% |
| Alexa Held (Mercury) | 8.0% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.9% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 7.4% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 7.3% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 7.2% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 7.1% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 7.0% |
| Awak Kuier (Wings) | 6.9% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.7% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 5.6% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 4.7% |
WNBA first basket picks today (June 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azzi Fudd | Wings | 3.0% | +1200 | 10.7% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 2.5% | +1000 | 11.5% |
| Marina Mabrey | Tempo | 2.2% | +650 | 15.5% |
| Gabriela Jaquez | Sky | 1.4% | +1200 | 9.1% |
| Saniya Rivers | Sun | 1.1% | +1300 | 8.2% |
| Natasha Mack | Mercury | 0.9% | +900 | 10.9% |
| Julie Allemand | Tempo | 0.7% | +1900 | 5.7% |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Wings | 0.4% | +1100 | 8.7% |
| Isabelle Harrison | Tempo | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Noemie Brochant | Mercury | 0.2% | +1300 | 7.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 6/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, June 22, 2026, Marina Mabrey, Dominique Malonga and Aliyah Boston lead our first basket projections, while Azzi Fudd shapes as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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