Jun 21, 2026
WNBA player props today: Sunday's best props include Dearica Hamby [6/21/2026]
Read Article Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: New York favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [6/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Los Angeles Sparks will face the New York Liberty in WNBA action at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Sparks game.
The Sparks, led by Nneka Ogwumike, Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby, are set to take on the Liberty, who feature Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Satou Sabally.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Sparks, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Liberty a 71.9% chance of defeating the Sparks.
According to our model, the Liberty (-5.5) have a 53.6% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 180.5 points has a 64.2% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Sparks odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Sparks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-102) | +5.5 (-118) |
| Moneyline | -200 | +170 |
| Total | o180.5 (-110) | u180.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Sparks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty -5.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -200 |
| Total | Under 180.5 | -104 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 180.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Sparks player props
Looking for Liberty vs. Sparks WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 19 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sparks.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kelsey Plum striking first with a 15.7% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 44 |
| Jonquel Jones | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 37 |
| Satou Sabally | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
| Pauline Astier | 13 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 28 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
Sparks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike | 19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 37 |
| Kelsey Plum | 19 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 36 |
| Dearica Hamby | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 38 |
| Ariel Atkins | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| Erica Wheeler | 10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
Liberty vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Sparks and Liberty at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- Date: Sunday, June 21, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 71.9% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure
