Jun 20, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, June 20, 2026
Read Article Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [6/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Saturday.
WNBA action continues on Saturday at 3:00 PM ET as the Seattle Storm square off with the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Storm vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, who have the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, will face off against the Storm, featuring Dominique Malonga, Natisha Hiedeman and Awa Fam.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA game between the Storm and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 75.9% chance of beating the Storm.
According to our model, the Storm (+7.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 162.5-point over/under has a 51.2% chance of staying under,.
Storm vs. Mercury odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Storm | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +7.5 (-106) | -7.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +240 | -290 |
| Total | o162.5 (-106) | u162.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Storm vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Storm +7.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | -290 |
| Total | Under 162.5 | -110 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Storm vs. Mercury player props
Looking for Storm vs. Mercury WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Dominique Malonga is expected to lead the Storm with 18 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 16 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assists for the Mercury.
When evaluating the first basket market, Dominique Malonga is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 14% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Storm prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Storm are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malonga | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 40 |
| N. Hiedeman | 16 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 32 |
| Awa Fam | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 28 |
| F. Johnson | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| Zia Cooke | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 27 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 43 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Alexa Held | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
| Natasha Mack | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 26 |
Storm vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Mercury and Storm at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Saturday, June 20, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 75.9% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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