Jun 21, 2026
Best WNBA bets today: Sunday's picks include Mystics vs. Lynx play [6/21/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, June 21, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 6/21.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, June 21, 2026—are live with the Valkyries' Gabby Williams projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Williams, A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (June 21, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Gabby Williams (Valkyries) | 16.1% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.9% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 15.7% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 14.9% |
| Satou Sabally (Liberty) | 14.4% |
| Janelle Salaun (Valkyries) | 13.0% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 12.4% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 12.3% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 12.1% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 11.7% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 11.4% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 11.3% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 11.2% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 10.9% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.9% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 10.8% |
| Veronica Burton (Valkyries) | 10.3% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 9.4% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 8.4% |
| Cassandre Prosper (Mystics) | 8.0% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 7.3% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.3% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 6.8% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.7% |
| Kayla Thornton (Valkyries) | 6.7% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 6.2% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.1% |
| Leonie Fiebich (Liberty) | 4.6% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 4.0% |
| Kiah Stokes (Valkyries) | 3.9% |
WNBA first basket picks today (June 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 3.3% | +1000 | 12.3% |
| Kiki Iriafen | Mystics | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Erica Wheeler | Sparks | 1.5% | +1800 | 6.8% |
| Kelsey Plum | Sparks | 1.4% | +600 | 15.7% |
| Sonia Citron | Mystics | 0.9% | +900 | 10.9% |
| Gabby Williams | Valkyries | 0.7% | +550 | 16.1% |
| NaLyssa Smith | Aces | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 0.1% | +1300 | 7.3% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 0.0% | +1400 | 6.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 6/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, June 21, 2026, Gabby Williams, A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum lead our first basket projections, while Courtney Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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