NFL Week 10 First Touchdowns: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday

Betting on first touchdown scorers in Week 10 NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these Week 10 touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 10 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up five first TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 10 Sunday NFL slate.

NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 10 (Sunday, November 9, 2025)

There's a mix of RBs and WRs as well as strong probabilities and favorable positional matchups for our first touchdown picks in Week 10, with all players showing odds of +340 to +500. Several players have also seen their First TD odds improve since we debuted these picks on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

1. Rico Dowdle (Panthers)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Saints vs. Panthers
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Bank of America Stadium

In the midst of a breakout run, Panthers RB Rico Dowdle gets a Saints rushing defense that ranks in the bottom 10 across the league, with a 16% Dimers probability to score the first touchdown.

The Saints haven’t scored first since Week 1, so game script could easily favor the Panthers here, and the Saints red zone defense is particularly vulnerable, allowing a score on over 60% of opponent possessions.

Despite dealing with a quad issue sustained in Week 9, he’s been highly productive, finding the end zone four times since taking over in Week 5.

Rico Dowdle First TD odds: +380

2. Quinshon Judkins (Browns)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Browns vs. Jets
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: MetLife Stadium

Browns rookie RB Quinshon Judkins is a true workhorse, and this matchup sets up well for him alongside his Top 5 first TD probability of 15% from the Dimers model.

The Browns’ elite defense should limit the Jets’ scoring opportunities, giving Judkins plenty of time and touches to establish the run game.

He’s been electric in the open field, breaking four runs of 30+ yards — tied for the most in the NFL alongside Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry.

With his explosiveness and workload, he’s a major threat to find paydirt first as the best player on the Browns offense.

Quinshon Judkins First TD odds: +380

3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Lions vs. Commanders
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Northwest Stadium

After getting carved up by the Seahawks, the Commanders will have to face another dangerous passing offense and top-tier wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, who gets a 12% probability to score the first touchdown in this game.

Without their starting quarterback, the Commanders offense might struggle if they get the ball first and the highest-projected Commander to score first this week sits at just 7%, which gives St. Brown and the Lions an edge in early scoring potential.

Notably, he hasn’t scored in any of Detroit’s three losses, and the Lions need to win to keep pace in the NFC North, so expect the Lions to scheme him the ball early to set the tone.

Amon-Ra St. Brown First TD odds: +500

4. Davante Adams (Rams)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Rams vs. 49ers
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Levi's Stadium

Thriving with his new team, WR Davante Adams leads the league in receiving touchdowns and has been red-hot lately, scoring five times in his past two games.

He leads all players in this game with a 12% probability to score first, and is the most likely Rams player to score a touchdown period, and even offers better first-TD odds than Puka Nacua, who is banged up in the same game.

With Matthew Stafford playing lights out and the Rams’ defense locking down opponents, Adams should be in prime position to find the end zone again, this time for the first score.

Davante Adams First TD odds: +600

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Cardinals vs. Seahawks
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 4:05 PM ET
• Venue: Lumen Field

Jaxon Smith-Njigba somehow didn’t score last week in a 38-point effort by Seattle, but he draws a favorable matchup against a Cardinals defense that just allowed Dallas to drive straight down the field on its opening possession before stalling at the goal line.

Seattle’s offense has been firing early, and JSN has emerged as arguably the No. 1 wide receiver in football right now.

He’s due for another quick strike, highlighted by his 11% First TD probability, and Arizona’s shaky pass defense may be the perfect victim.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba First TD odds: +550

Dimers' Week 10 First Touchdown picks.

First Touchdown Scorers: Week 10 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a first touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score the first TD in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, an NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 10. The total potential payout for a small stake on this first touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.